Tapping into voter anger, Republicans across America are targeting Democratic congressional seats and governorships.
With anti-incumbent fever spiking and public approval ratings of the Democrat-controlled Congress at a low ebb, a GOP takeover of the U.S. House appears mathematically possible, party strategists say. If so, it would be an historic shift in power.
Meanwhile, Republican Governors Association Chairman Haley Barbour predicts his party will pick up at least six and as many as 14 governorships, setting the GOP'smark somewhere between 30 and 38 governors.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich forecast last week that the party would outstrip its gains in 1994, when it won 10 -- nearly double the historic average of 5.5 in a presidents first midterm election.
Democrats call the GOP's flirtation with tea party groups an "extreme makeover" that will blow up the party's chances.
In a Sept. 8 memo, Nathan Daschle, director of the Democratic Governors Association, noted that "brutal divisions within the Republican Party persist in key states, including California, Colorado and Florida."
Still, acknowledging "tough political headwinds," Daschle predicted that "at least 70 House races are in play," along with six Senate seats and a "couple of dozen" governorships.
But Daschle said the GOP's own "civil war" will keep Democrats' hopes alive in these contests.
"This is a much weaker Republican Party than 1994, both in intellectual vigor and in unity. Polling shows that Americans are turned off by the 2010 GOP, which in race after race is lurching to extremes, leaving behind festering division," Daschle declared.
In Florida, for example, GOP gubernatorial nominee Rick Scott finds himself in a statistical tie with Democrat Alex Sink. A Sunshine State News Poll showed this week that Scott is dogged by high negatives lingering from his knock-down-drag-out primary battle with Attorney General Bill McCollum.
While Scott, who received a set of tea party endorsements Thursday, is viewed as borderline extreme by some in his own party, Sink has captured the lion's share of independent voters in the middle of the political spectrum.
Both national parties are pumping money into the race in an effort to take the seat being vacated by Gov. Charlie Crist, who bolted the Republican Party to run as an independent candidate for U.S. Senate.
Republican campaign consultant Rick Wilson said, "Alex Sink comes into this race dragging the very heavy weight of a Democratic base that has lost its energy and direction. There's a strong correlation between voting in the primary and voting in the general, and as you can see from the turnout in both the Republican gubernatorial and Senate races, GOP voter enthusiasm is at a very high pitch."
In Florida's congressional contests, at least three Democratic districts could swing Republican this year. Reps. Allen Boyd, D-Tallahassee; Alan Grayson, D-Orlando; and Suzanne Kosmas, D-New Smyrna Beach, are seen as vulnerable. Grayson and Kosmas are both freshmen, and a recent poll showed Kosmas trailing GOP nominee Sandy Adams.
Rep. Ron Klein, D-Boca Raton, also is facing a tough challenge from Allen West, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel. Klein narrowly won re-election in 2008 to the seat that the GOP had held from 1980-2006.
Republicans currently hold a 15-10 majority in Florida's congressional delegation. None of the major polls has suggested that any of the state's Republican congressmen are in trouble.
In the Senate race, a Sunshine State News Poll last week showed Republican Marco Rubio, a tea party favorite, dominating the contest by double digits as Crist and Democrat Kendrick Meek split the center-left vote.
But Daschle said, "While we believe that this election will remain challenging and volatile through November, the GOPs path looks increasingly dependent on overcoming festering internal divisions."
Indeed, Grayson's Republican challenger in Central Florida's 8th Congressional District, Daniel Webster, must contend with TEA Party candidate Peg Dunmire as well as conservative-leaning George Metcalfe, who is running NPA. That splintering on the right leaves the center-left coalition unified behind the incumbent.
Seeing a rosier scenario for congressional Democrats, Kenneth Quinnell, executive director of the liberal Florida Progressive Coalition, said, "It doesn't look like the national trend will have much impact on Florida.
"There are a couple of Democrats who are vulnerable and a seat or two that the Democrats will pick up, most likely Joe Garcia in South Florida picking up a Republican seat (vacated by Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart), but the net change will be negligible.
"Congressional districts in Florida are so badly gerrymandered that it's hard for much change to take place in either direction," Quinnell said.
Citing recent polls, Daschle said, "The GOPs image is at its lowest point ever -- and, more importantly, lower than Democrats.
"In Tuesdays NBC/WSJ poll, the GOPs underwater favorable/unfavorable rating continues to eclipse the Democrats, with the GOP at 30/43 compared to Democrats stronger standing of 36/43.
"In the latest Gallup/USA Today poll, Republicans approval is the same as four years ago, when they were swept out of power in Congress," Daschle noted.
Whatever the polls project, Republicans enjoyed a decided advantage in the polling booths last month.
GOP turnout was 12.4 percent higher than the Democratic turnout in Florida's Aug. 24 primary. Democratic turnout exceeded Republican turnout in just five of the state's 67 counties, and by an average of less than 2 percent.
The Republican advantage figures to hold in the Nov. 2 election, as GOP voters say they are more intensely interested in the fall campaign while Democrats appear more disengaged and apathetic -- despite Daschle's attempts to whip up excitement among the faithful masses.
So-called "generic ballot" surveys around the country show Republican candidates are preferred by a 49-40 margin among voters most likely to vote this fall.
Rhodes Cook, a political analyst for the Wall Street Journal, wrote Thursday, "With political pundits steadily upping their predictions of Republican House gains this fall to 60 seats or more, the 2010 election may turn out to be a political version of these unique sports events -- a 'throwback' election.
"Not since the presidential election year of 1948 has there been a swing of at least 60 House seats from one party to the other. And not since 1938 has it occurred in a midterm election. In short, a 60-seat shift is an outsized upheaval that seemed a part of our past. That is, until now."
Ultimately, every election comes down to turnout. And, at this point, Republicans appear poised for a comeback -- perhaps one of historic proportions.
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Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or (772) 801-5341.
