A poll released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University shows a majority of the American people would never vote for two potential Republican presidential candidates --former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and businessman Donald Trump --but they remain much more open to other GOP hopefuls, including former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
"It is difficult to get a handle on the 2012 Republican race, said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. Many contenders are not well-known and many who are known are not liked, making their candidacies problematic. You could call this the 'No Way' measure."
"Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are in the best shape, added Brown. Sarah Palin and Donald Trump suffer from the reality that, as our mothers told us, 'You never get a second chance to make a first impression.'"
The poll found a clear majority of voters --58 percent --would never vote for either Palin or Trump. Almost a third of those surveyed, 32 percent, would not vote for Huckabee. More than a quarter of voters, 26 percent, would not vote for Romney.
Romney had the highest numbers in the poll with 15 percent enthusiastic about his candidacy and an additional 38 percent who would consider voting for him. Huckabee won the enthusiastic backing of 13 percent of those polled and 34 percent would consider voting for him. While Palin won the enthusiastic support of 15 percent, only an additional 24 percent of those polled would consider voting for her. Trump garnered the enthusiastic support of 9 percent with an additional 26 percent open to voting for him.
Two other candidates --former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia and U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota -- were also upside down, with more voters maintaining they would never back them than open to supporting them. While 9 percent were enthusiastic about backing Gingrich and 29 percent would consider voting for him, 42 percent of those polled said they would never back him. Only 6 percent were enthusiastic about backing Bachmann with 21 percent open to voting for her and 29 percent insisting they would never vote for her.
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas garnered more support. While 27 percent of those surveyed said they would never back the Texas congressman, 10 percent were enthusiastic about his candidacy and an additional 25 percent would consider voting for him.
The poll found that some of the dark horses have work to do to raise their profiles in the months to come.
Former Utah Gov. Jon Hunstman was largely unknown, with 49 percent of those surveyed having never heard of him before. While 2 percent said they would back him with enthusiasm and 12 percent would consider voting for him, 12 percent said they would never vote for him and 24 percent have not heard enough.
Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota received the enthusiastic backing of 6 percent and 16 percent would consider voting for him, while 20 percent would never back him. More than a third of those surveyed -- 35 percent -- had never heard of him and 22 percent had not heard enough about him.
Gov. Mitch Daniels of Indiana also remained largely unknown: 42 percent had never heard of him and 22 percent had not heard enough about him to have an opinion. While 4 percent were enthusiastic about the Hoosiers candidacy and 15 percent would consider voting for him, 17 percent said they would never back him.
Conservative former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum generated more opposition but also remained largely unknown. With 22 percent saying they would never back him, 4 percent said they were enthusiastic about his candidacy and 15 percent would consider voting for him. Despite his two terms in the Senate, 35 percent had never heard of Santorum and 23 percent had not heard enough about him.
Former Gov. Gary Johnson of New Mexico was the most unknown candidate included in the poll, with 53 percent of those polled having never heard of him and 27 percent needing to hear more before they could form an opinion of him. Of those surveyed, 2 percent were enthusiastic about a Johnson candidacy with an additional 9 percent willing to consider voting for him, while another 9 percent said they could never back him.
When Quinnipiac surveyed just Republicans on their preferences, Romney topped the poll with 18 percent; Palin and Huckabee were right behind him with 15 percent each. Trump placed fourth with 12 percent. The other candidates were mired in single digits. Gingrich, who had commanded 15 percent in a similar poll conducted by Quinnipiac back in November, now had 5 percent --tying with Paul and Daniels for fifth place. The two Minnesotans --Bachmann and Pawlenty -- trailed with 4 percent. Three candidates --Huntsman, Johnson and Santorum --all took 1 percent.
"This measurement is deceptive, because some who rank high have little upside due to their high negative," insisted Brown. "Many of the relative unknowns could have large upsides if they can get out their messages, since they will not have to erase a bad first impression. It is always easier to make a good first impression than to change an existing negative one.
"Comparing those who say they would never vote for a candidate versus those who say they would consider voting for the candidate and those who are enthusiastic is a good way to view a candidate's growth potential, added Brown.
The poll of 1,408 registered voters was taken between April 26 and May 1 and had a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
