With the Florida presidential primaries now in the rear view mirror, the race to replace Marco Rubio in the Senate will start claiming more of the spotlight. But make no mistake: the presidential contest and the Senate race are closely connected in Florida.
Voters in Florida almost never split their tickets when a presidential contest and a Senate one fall in the same year. Four years ago, when Bill Nelson defended his seat from Republican challenger Connie Mack IV, Democrats won big in Florida as Barack Obama carried the state and the Senate incumbent won another term.
While Nelson ran ahead of Obama in 2012, sometimes the presidential candidate outperforms his party’s Senate candidate. That was the case in 2004 when George W. Bush beat John Kerry by 5 percent in Florida but Republican Mel Martinez edged Democrat Betty Castor by only 70,000 votes, winning 49 percent to 48 percent.
Of course 2000 was a bit of an exception. Nelson beat out Republican Bill McCollum even as Bush beat Al Gore in that disputed election. But Nelson has a knack for outperforming the Democratic presidential ticket and winning over enough independents and Republicans to find a path to victory. That helps explain why he’s been the only constant winner for Florida Democrats at the state level since Lawton Chiles and Bob Graham.
Like Nelson, Graham had the ability to reach voters outside the Democratic ranks. That was on display in 1992. While George H.W. Bush carried Florida even as Bill Clinton won the presidency, Graham had no problem with Republican challenger Bill Grant. But Grant was a very flawed candidate who was largely unknown outside his home district and had lost his congressional seat in 1990 after he switched over from the Democrats to the GOP a year before.
Republicans had a good year in Florida in 1988. George H.W. Bush easily beat Mike Dukakis in Florida and helped pull Connie Mack III to victory in an open Senate race. Mack’s win over Buddy MacKay is generally overlooked when the GOP gains in Florida are talked about but it represented an important milestone for Florida Republicans. Mack was the first Republican to hold that Senate seat since Reconstruction and, unlike Paula Hawkins, he was able to successfully defend it.
Presidential elections also helped two other Republicans win Senate seats. Hawkins was elected in 1980 on Ronald Reagan’s coattails. Back in 1968, building on the success Claude Kirk had becoming the first Republican governor since Reconstruction, Ed Gurney came to the Senate as Richard Nixon beat on Hubert Humphrey and George Wallace in Florida.
Like Graham and Nelson would do later on, Chiles would run stronger than the Democratic presidential candidate when they shared the ticket back in 1976. Chiles took 63 percent that year while Republican John Grady, who had served as mayor of Belle Glade, pulled only 37 percent. Things were far closer in the presidential contest where Jimmy Carter beat out Gerald Ford in the Sunshine State 52 percent to 47 percent.
With two exceptions, Florida voters are usually on the same page when presidential contests and Senate elections fall in the same cycle. While Florida will be in the limelight in November as the largest swing state on the map, the Senate contest will also be important.
Even as polls show pluralities of Florida Republicans and Democrats remain undecided in the Senate primaries, the stakes are starting to get high. With Republican senators like Pat Toomey, Mark Kirk, Kelly Ayotte, Ron Johnson and Rob Portman defending in states that often go blue in presidential contests, Democrats are starting to grow more optimistic about taking the Senate in November. The GOP’s path to keeping control of the Senate is a lot easier if they can keep the open seat in Florida under its control.
It’s certainly possible the keys to the White House and control of the Senate come down to Florida in November. Based on recent history, the two contests will probably be linked in the Sunshine State.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
