Public Policy Polling (PPP), a firm with connections to prominent Democrats, unveiled a poll Tuesday that showed that Republican voters in Florida have not found a front-runner in either the race to see who the GOPs presidential nominee will be or who will emerge to take on Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson.
PPP offered six results from their questions on the Republican presidential race.
When all eight candidates PPP included were in the poll, there was a three-way tie at the top between former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia, allwith 18 percent. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin took fourth with 15 percent. U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota followed with 7 percent while U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas and former Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota tied for sixth with 6 percent apiece. Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi trailed with 3 percent.
When Huckabee --who some experts and pundits do not think will make a second bid for the Republican nod --is taken out, Gingrich led with 24 percent with Romney at his heels with 23 percent. Palin took third with 19 percent and Paul jumped up to fourth with 9 percent, followed by Bachmann, Pawlenty and Barbour whose numbers remain unchanged from the earlier poll.
With Palin out of the mix, Huckabee won with 24 percent while Romney and Gingrich tied for second with 22 percent. Bachmann benefited with Palin out of the equation, moving up to 9 percent while Paul and Pawlenty remained at 6 percent and Barbours support dropped to 2 percent.
When both Palin and Huckabee were taken out of the equation, Gingrich topped the poll with 30 percent followed by Romney with 28 percent. Bachmann took fourth with 11 percent, followed by Pawlenty with 10 percent and Paul with 9 percent. Barbour trailed with 2 percent.
While Florida helped drive the nail in the coffin of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giulianis bid for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008, he retains a good deal of support among Florida Republicans. If the former mayor were included and Barbour left out of the mix, Romney, Huckabee and Gingrich would all have 17 percent each with Giuliani right behind them at 16 percent. Palin would drop to fifth with 11 percent, followed by Bachmann and Pawlenty with 6 percent and Paul with 4 percent.
While former Gov. Jeb Bush has closed the door on running in 2012, the poll found he retains the support of Florida Republicans. With Bush included and Barbour excluded, the favorite son wins the Sunshine State, taking 30 percent, while Romney, Huckabee and Gingrich trail with 14 percent each. Palin would come in fifth with 9 percent, followed by Bachmann with 5 percent and Pawlenty and Paul taking 4 percent each.
The poll found that Florida Republicans remain high on the candidates that they are familiar with. Huckabee, who moved to Florida after placing fourth in the Sunshine State during his presidential bid in 2008, was seen as favorable by 71 percent of those surveyed and unfavorable by 17 percent. Bush was seen as favorable by 68 percent and unfavorable by 22 percent. Palins unfavorable numbers were a little higher at 30 percent but she was seen as favorable by 62 percent. Romney was seen as favorable by 61 percent and unfavorable by 24 percent.
Gingrichs and Giulianis numbers were slightly lower. Gingrich was seen as favorable by 58 percent and unfavorable by 26 percent, while 51 percent saw Giuliani in a favorable light as opposed to 34 percent who saw him as unfavorable.
Despite his two previous presidential campaigns, Paul remains less familiar to Florida Republicans. While 53 percent saw the Texas congressman as favorable and 16 percent viewed him unfavorably, he remained unknown to 31 percent of those surveyed.
Never having run or held national office before, Bachmann, Barbour and Pawlenty are even more unknown to Florida Republicans, but those that know them generally see them favorably according to the poll. Bachmann was seen as favorable by 44 percent, unfavorable by 9 percent and 47 percent were not sure about her. Barbour was even less known -- 35 percent favorable, 7 percent unfavorable and 58 percent were not sure. A majority -- 52 percent -- were not sure about Pawlenty, but 40 percent saw him as favorable as opposed to 8 percent unfavorable.
In the Republican Senate race, U.S. Rep. Connie Mack -- who announced at the end of March that he was not running -- topped the two surveys PPP conducted. Mack, whose father held the seat for two terms, took 23 percent followed by Senate President Mike Haridopolos with 12 percent and former U.S. Sen. George LeMieux with 10 percent. Current talk-show host and former U.S. Rep. Joe Scarborough took 7 percent, followed by former House Majority Leader Adam Hasner with 5 percent, Lt. Gov. Jennifer Carroll with 4 percent, U.S. Rep. Jeff Miller with 2 percent and Wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales with 1 percent. More than a third of those surveyed -- 35 percent -- were for someone else or undecided.
When PPP narrowed the field down to Mack, LeMieux, Haridopolos and Hasner, Mack topped the poll again, taking 28 percent. LeMieux moved up to second with 14 percent, with Haridopolos in third with 13 percent; Hasner trailed with 4 percent. More than two-fifths -- 41 percent -- were for someone else or undecided.
The poll found that the possible Senate hopefuls are not well-known to Florida Republicans.
Mack was seen as favorable by 31 percent, unfavorable by 16 percent, and a majority of those surveyed -- 53 percent -- were not sure about him. The other candidates were even less known. Two-thirds -- 67 percent -- were not sure about Haridopolos while 16 percent saw him in a favorable light and 16 percent in an unfavorable one. Despite his 16 months in the Senate, almost three-fourths of those polled -- 74 percent -- were not sure about LeMieux, who was seen as favorable by 15 percent and unfavorable by 11 percent. While 84 percent were unsure about Hasner, he was seen favorably by 5 percent and unfavorably by 10 percent. Wales was the biggest unknown, with 89 percent of those surveyed unsure about him compared to 3 percent who saw him favorably and 8 percent unfavorably. Despite his morning talk-show on MSNBC, Floridian Republicans remain unsure about Scarborough, with 70 percent of those surveyed not sure about him, while 14 percent saw him favorably and 16 percent unfavorably.
Haridopolos has already declared his candidacy and LeMieux followed suit on Tuesday. Hasner is near-certain to enter the race. Retired army officer Mike McCalister, who took more than 10 percent of the Republican gubernatorial primary in 2010, is also in the race. U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan and businessman Nick Loeb are also possible candidates.
The poll of 427 usual Florida Republican primary voters took place from March 24 until March 27 and had a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (85) 727-0859.
