The race for Florida House District 36 can be read as an exact replica of how Republicans would like to see elections all over the country fall: a political newcomer takes on a two-term incumbent in a Democratic district and rides a Republican wave to an upset.
Greg Reynolds, the Republican nominee, is a former farmer -- he helped manage the family business, Reynolds Fruit Co. -- and commercial Realtor who has never run for political office before. He is taking on incumbent Democrat Scott Randolph, first elected in 2006.
"I am running because our community is precious to me and as a successful small business owner, I understand firsthand what it takes to create jobs and get Florida back on track," Reynolds said, explaining why he got into the race.
The district covers most of Orlando and has more registered Democratic than Republican voters. Still, Reynolds campaign is counting on Republican enthusiasm this midterm election cycle to put Reynolds over the top.
This is the year were going to pull this off, said Ed Mehnert, Reynolds campaign manager.
Besides the generic trends favoring Reynolds, there may be another factor helping his campaign -- the fiery rhetoric of U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson, D-Ocala, whose 8th Congressional District overlaps House District 36 in some areas.
Mehnert said Graysons over-the-top style and recent Taliban Dan ad that took the words of his opponent, Daniel Webster, out of context, has pushed voters into Reynolds camp. Since Randolph served as Graysons campaign manager when he was elected in 2008, its been easy to link him to the Democratic firebrand.
We had a poll that had Alan Grayson with only 36 percent support in this district (36), Mehnert said.
Randolph did not respond to several phone calls and e-mail requests for an interview for this story.
Reynolds is new to politics, but as a sixth-generation Floridian, is not new to the state. Randolph moved to Florida in 2002, but has already proved he can be elected in District 36, which is accustomed to newcomers.
While the trends may be behind Reynolds, Randolph has the advantage in registered voters and money. Randolph has raised $94,000 and spent only $40,000, while Reynolds has raised $79,000 and spent $52,000.
Republicans, however, are hoping the presence of Lawanna Gelzer, an African-American running with no party affiliation, will draw support away from Randolph. Larry Lamar Limbaugh is also in the race as a write-in candidate.
"Lawanna, from what I have seen, is a formidable and qualified third-party candidate," Reynolds said.
Reach Gray Rohrer at grohrer@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
