Optimism is slowly growing among Florida voters, but consumers in the Sunshine State tended to be a little more pessimistic in March than February, according to recent surveys by the Florida Chamber and University of Florida.
A Florida Chamber Political Institute study released Friday showed that voters were a little more supportive of the direction of the state and Gov. Rick Scott.
While the national economy and Washington politics are causing concern with voters, this is quite an improvement from June of last year, when 60 percent said the state was headed in the wrong direction, Marian Johnson, senior vice president of political strategy for the Florida Chamber of Commerce, stated in a release.
The fact that likely voters rate Governor Scott more positively is an indication that they agree with his jobs agenda and that he is moving forward with exactly what he campaigned on.
Meanwhile, UFs Survey Research Center at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research found that concerns about the U.S. economic conditions over the next five years and uncertainty over whether now is the time to make big-ticket item purchases are causing a drag on consumer confidence.
The big drag on consumers will increasingly be gas prices, which have increased more than 15 cents a gallon in the past month, Chris McCarty, director of UFs Survey Research Center at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research, stated in a release for the survey released March 27.
Prior to the housing market unraveling and the beginning of the past recession, there was a period of more than two years where gas prices were driving consumer confidence. With increases in gas prices likely over the next few months, consumers --particularly those with lower incomes -- will feel the impact. This will lead to lower confidence and perhaps lower spending than that associated with the higher January and February confidence results.
Both surveys were conducted prior to the release Friday of the February unemployment numbers for Florida that listed 869,000 Floridians as jobless, a 9.4 mark that was the lowest for the Sunshine State since February 2009.
The chamber survey of likely voters, conducted by telephone March 22-25, found that 35 percent of Floridians believe the state is heading in the right direction, up 3 percent from a month earlier.
Meanwhile, those with less confidence went down from 48 percent to 44 percent in the same period.
The survey, which showed the third consecutive month in which the optimism grew, had a 4.4 percent margin of error.
The survey, which listed jobs and the economy as the top concerns of those interviewed, also placed Gov. Scotts job approval rate at 46 percent, while those disapproving stood at 43 percent.
The monthly UF survey of consumers reported it is unknown if the decline in confidence was due to job creation, particularly well-paying jobs, or a decline in the work force as seniors reach retirement age.
McCarty noted that as more seniors retire, there will be an increased burden on Medicare and Social Security. Also, while the stock market has held onto recent gains, with the Dow above 13,000, recent trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange has been quite low.
As for real estate, the median price of a single family home for February was $134,000, close to the December 2011 level of $134,300 and higher than Januarys $129,000.
The pattern of consumer confidence from December to February was exactly the same as last year, said Chris McCarty, the survey director. In March 2011, confidence among Floridians fell 4 points to 72, then kept falling through August, coinciding with a pullback in spending among Floridians. This month, the decline was only 2 points, but still down. While the context this month is different from last year, with the absence of the Japanese earthquake and Arab Spring, other factors are increasingly likely to lead to a similar result.
Florida Chamber Political Institute Results
Please tell me if you have a very favorable, favorable, unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of President Obama?
Favorable, 48 percent; unfavorable 47 percent; undecided, 5 percent.
Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing?
Approve, 47 percent; disapprove, 49 percent; undecided, 4 percent.
Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job that Gov. Rick Scott is doing?
Approve, 46 percent; disapprove, 43 percent; undecided, 11 percent.
If the election were held today, would you vote to re-elect President Obama or vote for the Republican candidate?
President Obama, 42 percent; Republican, 46 percent; undecided 12 percent.
If the election were held today, would you vote to re-elect Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson or vote for the Republican candidate?
Bill Nelson, 41 percent; Republican, 42 percent; undecided 17 percent.
What do you believe is the most important issue facing Florida today?
| March, 2012 | January, 2012 | |
| Jobs and economy | 44% | 51% |
| Education | 10% | 12% |
| Health care | 5% | 5% |
| Property taxes | 3% | 4% |
Reach Jim Turner at jturner@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 215-9889.
