Mitt Romney seems more and more like the winner of the Republican presidential nomination, but looking ahead to a main event between the former Massachusetts governor and President Barack Obama, Romney has lost ground.
According to a national ABC/Washington Post poll out Monday, the president is getting a boost from improved economic indicators and questions about Romney's wealth and taxes.
Poll results show the president has climbed above Romney among registered voters, 51-45 percent. It's the first time either has cracked 50 percent in a head-to-head contest since spring 2011.
With 50 percent saying he deserves re-election, Obama is actually scoring higher numbers than Bill Clinton did at the start of his re-election year and he's level with George W. Bush's position a month before he won a second term.
The poll cites a gradual, though slight, improvement for the economy, plus a January unemployment rate of 8.3 percent, lowest since February 2008. Analysts maintain these trends are the chief reasons for a rise in the president's numbers.
On handling the economy, Obama's rating -- just 44 percent -- is nothing to write home about, but it's the best he's scored in 13 months.
Meanwhile, say analysts at Langer Research Associates, the firm that conducted the poll for ABC, new questions about Romney's wealth, the low taxes he pays and his questionable ability to connect with average Americans have dragged the GOP front-runner's chances down. In fact, in the poll, 52 percent say "the more we hear about Romney, the less we like him" -- that's twice the number who like him more.
Washington, D.C.-based GOP political analyst Roland Haywood told Sunshine State News Monday, "Looking at the picture historically, Romney's got a perception problem with his money and taxes. Remember what happened to Michael Dukakis, Al Gore and John Kerry when they ran. They trailed on taxes in 1988, 2000 and 2004, and they lost. Clinton and Obama led on taxes in 1992 and 2008, and they won. So Mitt is a little vulnerable right there."
That's not to say all is looking rosy for the president. He has challenges aplenty. A negative turn for the economy as we inch toward November -- if gasoline prices rise out of sight, for example -- could hobble him significantly.
Also, just now, Obama's approval rating on creating jobs is flat -- at 44 percent. Just 38 percent approve of his handling of the deficit, while 58 percent disapprove. That's a serious weakness. To overcome it, analysts say, he's going to have to make the case that it was deficit spending that turned the economy around. At 47 percent, fewer than half of those polled approve of his handling of taxes, even though he's leading Romney in that category.
On the key issues, handling the economy overall and creating jobs, Romney and Obama are virtually running even -- 48-45 percent and 47-45 percent, respectively; on the deficit, Romney soars, opening a 10-point lead, 51-41 percent.
More than anything, say pollsters, the 2012 campaign remains about the economy and its impact on public perceptions.
A huge 89 percent continue to rate the economy negatively, but the number who give it the worst rating, "poor," has declined to 42 percent, from 50 percent in July. It matters, says Langer. Among registered voters who say the economy's merely not so good, Obama leads big, by 62-35 percent. Among those who say it's poor, Romney towers over Obama, 65-29.
According to the poll, in the GOP primary race, among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, Romney leads Newt Gingrich, 39-23 percent, with 16 percent for Rick Santorum and 15 percent for Ron Paul.
Also, some 75 percent describe themselves as dissatisfied or even angry with the way the federal government is working, down slightly from a record 80 percent in July and November alike. It's still a huge number, says analyst Haywood, and that can put incumbents at risk.
The poll claims 53 percent of Americans say they're inclined to look for someone new to support for Congress, rather than vote to re-elect their representative. That's still a majority, but it's down considerably from a record 69 percent in August.
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Feb. 1-4, among a random national sample of 1,000 adults, including land line and cell-phone-only respondents. Results have a margin of sampling error of 4 points for the full sample.
Reach Nancy Smith at nsmith@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
