Public Policy Polling (PPP), a firm with connections to national Democrats, released a new poll Tuesday that showedformer Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who moved to the Sunshine State last year, is the favorite to win the Iowa caucus if he decides to run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012.
Traditionally the first battle for the presidential nominations of both parties, the Iowa caucus, which is followed by the New Hampshire primary, is scheduled for Feb. 6, 2012.
Huckabee, who won the caucus in 2008, topped the poll with 30 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who placed second back in 2008, remained in that position with 18 percent. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin was in third with 15 percent followed by former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich with 13 percent. U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas was in fifth place at 6 percent followed by Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota at 4 percent, U.S. Sen. John Thune of South Dakota with 3 percent and Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels at 1 percent.
Mike Huckabee continues to be very formidable in Iowa, said Dean Debnam, the president of PPP. That leads to two important questions: Is he even going to run and if he does, and wins Iowa again, can he build on that to a greater extent than he did in 2008?
The poll found that Huckabee was seen in a favorable light by most of those surveyed. Huckabee was seen as favorable by 72 percent and unfavorable by 16 percent. Palin had the second highest favorability rating with 60 percent but was seen as unfavorable by 29 percent. Romney was seen as favorable by 57 percent and unfavorable by 26 percent. Gingrich also received high marks -- 53 percent saw him as favorable and 27 percent unfavorable.
Two candidates who ran in 2008 and are considering running again in 2012 were seen as slightly less favorable with neither of them breaking 50 percent in favorability. Paul, who took fifth place with 10 percent back in 2008, was seen as favorable by 47 percent and unfavorable by 23 percent. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who placed a distant sixth with 4 percent back in 2008, was seen as favorable by 49 percent and unfavorable by 30 percent -- the highest unfavorable score of any of the potential candidates.
The other potential candidates remain largely unknown. Pawlenty was seen as favorable by 34 percent and unfavorable by 12 percent. Former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, who has worked Iowa hard making a number of trips there, is seeing some result from his efforts with 28 percent seeing him in favorable terms compared to 9 percent who view unfavorably. U.S. Sen. Jim DeMint was viewed as favorable by 22 percent and unfavorable by 10 percent. Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour was seen as favorable by 22 percent and unfavorable by 14 percent. The poll found 20 percent saw Thune as favorable as opposed to 9 percent unfavorable. U.S. Rep. Mike Pence was seen as favorable by 16 percent and unfavorable by 8 percent. Daniels stood with 11 percent favorability but the same number of Iowa Republicans saw him as unfavorable.
Huckabee also topped the poll when Iowa Republicans were asked who their second choice was. Huckabee led with 19 percent, followed by Palin at 13 percent, Gingrich with 12 percent and the other candidates trailing in single digits.
Other candidates who could run include U.S. Rep. Michelle Bachmann of Minnesota, former Gov. George Pataki of New York, former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton, businessman Herman Cain and political activist Fred Karger.
The poll of 494 Republicans in the Hawkeye State was taken between Jan. 7-9 and had a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
