As the contenders for the Republican presidential nomination ready for a debate in Iowa Thursday night and a straw poll in Ames on Saturday, two new national polls show former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts ahead of the pack. But the polls differ on how large a lead he has.
Romney will take part in the debate on Thursday night, but focus is increasingly turning to three possible candidates who have yet to enter the race. Buzz is increasingly growing that Gov. Rick Perry of Texas will enter the race in coming days.
Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin will be making a bus tour of Iowa Friday, a thunder-stealing day before the announced candidates will take part in the straw poll. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is very busy in New Hampshire, making contact with Republican leaders and activists in that state which holds the first presidential primary.
A Fox News poll released late on Wednesday shows that Romney has a comfortable lead over the pack nationwide. He tops the poll with 21 percent, with Perry in second with 13 percent.
The rest of the pack trails in single digits. Palin took 8 percent while U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota and Giuliani tied for fourth with 7 percent. U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas and former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich are knotted up in sixth with 6 percent, followed by businessman Herman Cain with 5 percent. Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman all stand at 2 percent followed by former Gov. George Pataki of New York, who has not entered the race, with 1 percent. A host of dark horses -- former Gov. Buddy Roemer of Louisiana, former Gov. Gary Johnson of New Mexico, U.S. Rep. Thad McCotter of Michigan, former Alabama state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore and activist Fred Karger -- all pulled in less than 1 percent.
Romneys lead in the poll increases when only active candidates are included. In that scenario, Romney tops the poll with 26 percent, followed by Bachmann with 13 percent and Paul with 10 percent. Gingrich and Cain tie with 9 percent each, followed by Santorum and Pawlenty who are knotted up with 4 percent apiece. Huntsman takes 2 percent, Johnson and McCotter move up to 1 percent and Karger takes less than 1 percent.
The Fox News poll was taken by Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Co. Research. The poll of 319 Republican primary voters, part of a total sample of 904 registered voters, was conducted Aug. 7-9 and has a margin of error of +/- 5.5 percent.
But a poll conducted by ORC International for CNN, that was released on Thursday morning, showed Romney had a much smaller lead. Five candidates reached double digits in the CNN poll with Romney leading with 17 percent. Perry came in second with 15 percent while Giuliani, Palin and Paul tied for third with 12 percent each.
The rest of the field followed in single digits. Bachmann took 7 percent with Gingrich in seventh at 5 percent. Cain and Huntsman tied for eighth with 4 percent and Pawlenty and Santorum tied for 10th with 2 percent. Johnson and McCotter took less than 1 percent.
When Palin and Giuliani were taken out of the CNN poll, Romneys lead increased. In that scenario, Romney took 23 percent followed by Perry with 18 percent and Paul with 14 percent. Bachmann and Gingrich tied for fourth with 9 percent. Cain and Huntsman tied for sixth with 5 percent followed by Pawlenty and Santorum who garnered 3 percent each. Johnson and McCotter remained with less than 1 percent.
The CNN poll of 449 Republican primary voters, part of a total sample of 1,008 registered voters, was conducted Aug. 5-7 and had a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews or at (850) 727-0859.
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