After wins in special elections across the country, Democrats are claiming momentum as they head into November. Certainly if history is any guide, Donald Trump and the GOP should expect to face major losses in the general election.
In Florida, some Republican incumbents are facing more serious challenges than usual though most of those seats will stay red on Election Day. Still, there’s one Florida Republican whose odds of staying in Congress increase by the day even though he represents a nominally competitive district.
Congressman Mario Diaz-Balart appears to be headed for another term in Congress. First elected in 2002, Diaz-Balart represents Hendry County and parts of Collier County and Miami-Dade County. He currently chairs the Congressional Hispanic Conference and co-chairs the Congressional Everglades Caucus, the Congressional Colombia Caucus, the Congressional Friends of Spain Caucus, the Congressional Taiwan Caucus and the Florida Ports Caucus. Last month, Diaz-Balart took over as one of the leaders of the Republican Main Street Caucus.
Unlike other South Florida Republicans in Congress—namely Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Carlos Curbelo—Diaz-Balart hasn’t shied away from Donald Trump. Unlike Ros-Lehtinen and Curbelo, Diaz-Balart cheerfully backed Trump in the 2016 presidential election.
As Trump only carried the district by 2 percent over Hillary Clinton, there are some risks for Diaz-Balart in associating with the White House. But, so far, that hasn’t been a problem for Diaz-Balart.
Last week, Diaz-Balart cheered Trump ordering the Justice Department to crack down on bump stocks.
“The executive action to ban bump stocks is a welcome announcement,” Diaz-Balart said on Tuesday. “Back in October, I joined my congressional colleagues in calling for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) to re-evaluate bump stocks and similar mechanisms, which were approved by the bureau during the Obama administration. This is an important step and we must look at other measures to stop violent acts like those in Las Vegas, or more recently in South Florida.”
Diaz-Balart will also play a major role in guiding the Trump administration’s infrastructure bill on Capitol Hill. The South Florida Republican chairs the House Transportation, Housing and Urban Development Appropriations Subcommittee which gives him a seat at the table as the White House and Congress look at infrastructure.
So far, the Trump connections don’t seem to be hurting Diaz-Balart. With Ros-Lehtinen retiring, Democrats are favored to flip her seat while Curbelo is expected to be in a real dogfight come November.
Diaz-Balart on the other hand looks like a lock to stay in Congress. Despite getting blown out by 25 percent, Dr. Alina Valdes is angling for a rematch and she’s the only Democrat currently lined up against Diaz-Balart. At the end of December, she had less than $1,000 in the bank. National pundits are starting to notice and, at the end of November, Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved Diaz-Balart’s race to “Safe Republican.”
That’s where the race remains. While Trump may have barely won the district, Diaz-Balart looks like a heavy favorite to keep his seat. Democrats have momentum in South Florida as Annette Taddeo flipped a state Senate seat in a special election and are heavy favorites to claim Ros-Lehtinen’s seat. But, at this stage in the campaign, Diaz-Balart is well poised to win another term.
