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Rubio Will Face Tough Reelection Effort if He Runs for Senate

June 18, 2016 - 6:00am
Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio

Marco Rubio is spending this weekend pondering whether or not to run for a second term in the Senate. But despite his national prominence, if Rubio gets in the race, he won’t have an easy path to reelection. 

Rubio came into office on the tea party wave in 2010 but he took less than 50 percent against a divided field with Charlie Crist running with no party affiliation and Kendrick Meek on the Democratic line. Crist pulled off some Republican support of course but his backing mostly came from outside the GOP. Regardless, Rubio won the three man race in a blowout. 

When he ran for the Republican presidential nomination, Rubio ruled out running for a second term but now he’s contemplating getting back into the race. He has until Friday to make up his mind.

Certainly Rubio has support from the party leadership if he gets in. Republicans ranging from Donald Trump to Mitch McConnell to the NRSC leadership have urged Rubio to run. According to the Tampa Bay Times, political insiders make Rubio the favorite if he runs again but note his chances are better against Alan Grayson than Patrick Murphy. 

But Rubio will have competition from the right if he gets in. Carlos Beruff and Todd Wilcox have no intention of getting out even as David Jolly heads to the sideline. Carlos Lopez-Cantera has already said he will drop if Rubio runs and, in fact, encouraged his friends to seek a second term. Ron DeSantis will have a hard time keeping the support of national conservative groups if Rubio gets in, especially if they fear GOP control of the Senate is at stake in Florida. 

Both Beruff and Wilcox will have plenty of room to make credible bids against Rubio even if they will both slit each others’ throats, giving the incumbent room to win the primary at the end of August. As Trump’s big win over Rubio back in March shows, there are plenty of Republicans in Florida drawn to an outspoken outsider with private sector credentials: exactly how Beruff and Wilcox are presenting themselves. Still, there might not be enough oxygen for both Beruff and Wilcox to go against Rubio. 

Even if Rubio goes on to win the primary, he’s not a slam dunk for another term. The Center for Politics rates the Florida race as a toss up, even if Rubio ends up with the Republican nod. Even the insiders surveyed by the Tampa Bay Times aren’t making Rubio a heavy favorite with 55 percent of them thinking he will win against Murphy but 45 percent like the Democrat’s chances. 

Rubio rose to national prominence in 2010 by winning a three way race when the GOP was far more united than the Democrats. That’s been his only win in the electoral big leagues and, while it did garner him attention from conservatives across the nation, it didn’t help him when he jumped in the presidential race. While he has a few wins, from Minnesota to Puerto Rico, Rubio didn’t shine on the national stage especially when Chris Christie came out swinging in a debate right before the New Hampshire primary. Rubio’s pathetic showing in New Hampshire pretty much ended his chances even as he stayed in until Trump utterly routed him in Florida. 

Still, there is talk about Rubio running for president in the future. A loss in November would end those plans but, if he stays on the sidelines, Rubio will be in danger of being eclipsed by other Republicans much like Mike Huckabee, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum were this time out. If he rolls the dice though, Rubio will find winning in 2016 will be a far more difficult assignment than he had six years ago. 


Trump was right when he attacked lying Ted. Marco is talented but then he allowed Rick Santorum / religious extremism / Sharia Law to promote a campaign of hate. Orlando is the result of allowing Sharia Law, Rick Santorum , lying Ted, poor incompetent Pam Bondi and crazy Kim Davis to voice their dangerous campaigns of hate against citizens and supporting Afghan terrorists instead.

Why is anyone even mentioning pro religious extremism / Sharia Law Rick Santorum. He can't win at home. His good looking wife and the pleasant family can't paint over the nasty and dangerous supporter of religious fundamentalism. He is a threat to national security.

Does it matter to anyone that this man said he wasn't going to run, and now that his Presidential bid didn't turn out like he hoped, he wants to reverse himself? Does it matter to anyone that he is ONLY running for the Senate so that he has a better chance to run for President again in 4 years?

Senator Rubio will have an uphill battle to win. I agree,with several other posters. I will not vote for him again anytime soon. His conduct in the presidential primaries left much to be desired. I have also heard other negative things about his service as the Florida House Speaker. Again, I will not vote for him anytime soon.

Some real brilliant comments here. Missing votes where a single vote doesn't count is not a big deal. Most votes in the Senate don't really occur as they are done by voice and these key words -- HEARING NO OBJECTION -- are very day in the Senate because most votes are by acclimation because the Senators agree on a positive vote.e heard. That is how the Senate works. The fact Marco missed 14% of the votes is not a big deal, he was very busy doing what no other Floridian has ever done, rune for President with some national support. The notes posted here by the brilliant Floridians are living proof that Florida may not have yet reached the Big Leagues even as Marco Rubio has.

Sen. Marco Rubio is just another politician whose "thinking" about an issue has "evolved." The last thing we need is another career politician (how much has Mr. Rubio worked a real job?) who has changed his position and seeks to return to Washington on our dime simply to preserve his own political viability! Mr. Rubio, your word is your word and your distaste for the Senate and people of Florida is evident. You had your turn and now it is time to leave and not use a tragedy as a pretext to run. To run again will simply show that the Establishment seeks to salvage its investment in you. I am a lifelong Republican and will not support you.

Good luck Little Marco in getting elected.

"..tough reelection..?" YOU BET !... I, for one, won't EVER vote for Marco Polio again !

Marco Rubio is not to be trusted. He broke his pledge on amnesty. He doesn't care about the 4th amendment privacy rights of citizens. He voted to give the US Military the right to arrest US Citizens on US soil and hold them indefinitely on the mere suspicion there might be a terrorist connection. No due process rights, no attorney to represent you, not even a phone call if they don't want you to have it. I anticipate all of the "oh that will never happen" responses, the "your just an anti government right wing zealot" responses, the "you're just anti military" responses, or worse. My response is it has probably already happened. But even if it hasn't and never does, the gross violations of our Constitutional rights that this authority granted to the military represents is a bridge too far. Never Marco!

I will not be fooled by Rubio again! He is not a true conservative. He talks like one, walks like one and even looks like one but all he is a career politician.

In 3 1/2 years in Congress Alan Grayson has filed and passed more bills than any other Congressman and has been rated as the "most effective Congressman. In 5 1/2 years in the Senate Marco Rubio has filed and passed ONLY ONE BILL. Alan Gayson debated David Jolly and 13 million people watched, and Jolly dropped out of the race. Carlos Lopez-Cantera had to resign to run and will be out of a job soon.

Stop blaming Marco for only having filed one bill which was passed! After all, how could you expect him to get anything done when he's hardly been there in the first place!

You're absolutely right! If you measure number of bills passed per days actually present in the Senate, I think Marco would be Number 1 most effective.

I agree with everything you said. The Democrats will come after him for his voting record. He missed 14.8% of the votes...Hillary missed 9.5%. However, Marco Rubio is the smartest guy going--Go Marco!

Marco Rubio is an awful, representative segment of Congressional offal, and we don't need him!

Please review Todd Wilcox's web site before you finalize your decision. Wilcox is way ahead of all the current willows in Congress with his comprehensive, strategic plan to destroy ISIS and all the other Islamic alphabet groups. He is also hard-down on term limits, making Congress live by the laws they pass (like Obamacare), disallowing former elected officials become lobbyists, and cutting Congressional pensions.

Little Marco has a 'voting record'? Wow, so he's a liar, cheat, awol from his 'job', and is distrusted by a majority of Floridians. He was more concerned with running for Presidente than doing what the voters put him in Washington to do! He will never be re-elected and he will never gain the trust of common sensed voters! GO TRUMP!!

Anyone who gets an endorsement from Rick Santorum is finished. Any voter who does not support religious fundamentalism / terrorism must reject dangerous Rick and those associated with Rick (aka Sharia Law)

If I must,.. I will "hold my nose" and vote for Grayson OVER Rubio ! (but I prefer DiSantis).

Now, now, C Breeze....I know you better than that. You have had a bad day and need to calm down. I do not believe you could squeeze your fingers together THAT hard!

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