Lenny Curry can breathe a little easier as he ramps up his bid to challenge Alvin Brown in the Jacksonville mayoral race.
Curry had a big Friday with longtime Duval County Sheriff John Rutherford announcing that he was backing the former RPOF chairman while hitting Browns record. Even better for Currys mayoral ambitions, Mike Hogan said on Friday he was going to run for Duval County elections supervisor instead of angling for a rematch with Brown. Hogan was the subject of much speculation as he resurfaced and buzz started to build about a second mayoral bid.
While he might have led the state GOP, Curry needs a united Republican base against Brown. Democrats might outnumber Republicans in Jacksonville but the GOP has the advantage in one of the most conservative cities in the state. While Brown beat Hogan in 2011, Republicans ran over Democrats in most recent mayoral elections. Still, Brown has been able to win-over moderates and some business-oriented Republicans. That certainly proved the case against Hogan last time out when Brown came back and beat him in the runoff. Brown hasnt backed off since then, trying to woo over moderates and pro-business Republicans, voters that Curry should be able to appeal to far better than Hogan could have.
Thats not to say Curry has a united GOP behind him. Bill Bishop, a former president of the City Council, is in the mix and hes trying to stake a claim with his fellow Republicans. But, even with his defeat at Browns hands last time out, Hogan was a far greater threat to Curry. Hogan remains a favorite of some conservatives while he has access to more support with voters and donors than Bishop does.
Hogan could have done major damage to Curry due to Jacksonvilles unique mayoral election. Eschewing primaries, if no candidate gets a majority in the March 24 election -- almost a certainty with half a dozen candidates already off and running -- the top two candidates from that round will square off on May 19. Even with Bishop splitting some Republicans away from him, Curry should survive the first round and head to a showdown with Brown come May. Had Hogan run again, there could have been a replay of 2011 with a large segment of the GOP voting for a candidate in the first round before backing Brown in the runoff.
Thats not to say Jacksonville Republicans are fully united and Hogan will now square off against GOP leader Rick Hartley and Tracie Davis, a veteran of the supervisor of elections office, lower on the ballot. But, with two weeks to go until qualifying closes, Curry can breathe a large sigh of relief as Hogan sets his sight on another office and Rutherford falls in line behind him against Brown.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
