Democrats are increasingly buzzing that Donald Trump could hurt Republicans so badly that he could lead to the GOP losing the House. That’s hard to imagine since the GOP has a 60 seat majority, more than the Democrats had when they lost the House in 1994.
Even though Florida is the third largest state, the Democrats don’t have many chances to take House seats, even with the latest round of redistricting helping their chances. The GOP is heavily favored to take the seat currently held by Gwen Graham in North Florida. Val Demings should easily take the seat currently held by Dan Webster who scooted up north after redistricting.
Of course, there are other opportunities for the Democrats in Florida. Charlie Crist gives Democrats a chance to flip a seat as he runs against David Jolly. Joe Garcia also has a chance to beat Carlos Curbelo in a rematch in South Florida. But Democrats also have to defend the seat currently held by Patrick Murphy in a competitive race.
Looking for other opportunities, Democrats and their allies are increasingly looking at seeing if they knock off John Mica. Certainly Mica is in a far more competitive district than what he has faced before and Democrats are making inroads in that part of Central Florida.
Democrats might need a major wave to catch Mica but there are signs that they are making gains against him even though he has easily held them off over the years. The Democrats have a solid candidate in businesswoman and Rollins College professor Stephanie Murphy who used to work for the Defense Department. The DCCC is starting to really get behind Murphy as are allied PACs.
In the meantime, the race has popped up on the national radar screen. Earlier this month, Roll Call increased the odds of the Democrats capturing the seat, moving it from “Republican Favored” to “Tilts Republican.”
Roll Call doubled down on their position on Tuesday, ranking Mica as the fifth most vulnerable congressional incumbent in the nation. Jolly tops the list while Curbelo is ranked seventh.
“This 12-term Republican hasn’t faced a serious election in decades, and Democrats didn’t even have a competitive challenger against him until late June,” Roll Call noted about Mica. “But with Stephanie Murphy now in the race, Mica finds himself on this list for the first time because he’s facing re-election in a heavily redistricted seat that’s more Democratic and at least 40 percent new to him. Republicans are concerned that he hasn’t invested the time or resources to introduce himself to new voters, while Democrats are treating this like a top pickup opportunity.”
Thats not wholly accurate. Back in 2012, Mica was pitted against Sandy Adams in a rare battle of two incumbents pitted against each other in a congressional primary. Mica beat her by a surprisingly large margin, taking 61 percent of the vote.
Of course, a general election is different than a primary but Mica has been tested in recent years and isn’t a sitting duck by any means. Still, this wasn’t a seat the GOP was expecting to be in play at the start of the summer.
