Florida led the nation in employment gains from April to May with 28,000 new jobs, but a report released by the U.S. Conference of Mayors paints a somewhat dimmer picture.
Using economic models from IHS Global Insight, the report identifies years by which U.S. cities will return to pre-recession employment levels. No Florida metro market is expected to hit that target this year or next. Just one -- the relatively small Palm Coast region south of Jacksonville -- is expected to reach that target by 2013.
Only the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford market is projected to rebound by 2014. The region's expanding theme-park attractions, recently profiled in Sunshine State News, are leading growth in the state's hospitality and construction sectors.
Several more Florida markets -- including Miami-Fort Lauderdale, Tallahassee, Punta Gorda, Lakeland-Winter Haven and Port St. Lucie -- are targeted for a 2015 rebound.
While the recovery may be lagging in Florida, other areas of the country are in even worse shape. No Florida cities fell into the "2020 or beyond" category, a classification that encompasses scores of markets, particularly in the Midwest and California.
"Although the recession technically ended two years ago, 48 metro areas -- including Detroit, Reno and Toledo, among others -- wont return to their pre-recession, peak employment levels until 2020 or beyond, giving credence to the idea of a 'new normal' in many parts of the country," the report stated.
At the end of this year, 75 metro areas will still be struggling with double-digit unemployment, according to the report. The situation is projected to improve only slightly in 2012, when 69 metro areas will finish the year with unemployment rates in excess of 10 percent.
The large number of metros with stubbornly high unemployment highlights the protracted period to recovery and is a sharp contrast to the swift velocity at which the economy deteriorated, the authors wrote in the report.
Overall, the study projects that employment wont return to its pre-recession peak until the first half of 2014.
Still, there is some good news.
"Although double-digit unemployment currently exists in 103 metro areas, that number is down from 150 a year ago, largely due to Midwest cities that are starting to rebound from manufacturing layoffs in 2008 and 2009," the report stated.
Other observers say Florida, alongwith the rest of the Gulf and southern Atlantic states, is positioned to reap big benefits when the widening of the Panama Canal is completed in 2014.
Gov. Rick Scott, who has made job creation his top priority, has made port expansion a priority to help Florida attract double-sized "Panamax" cargo ships that will ply their way through the canal.
Joel Kotkin, writing in Forbes, says some analysts predict that more than a quarter of Asian ship traffic could steer away from West Cost ports and shift to the Gulf and South Atlantic.
"More of Asia will be heading to this part of the world," says Jimmy Lyons, CEO of the Alabama State Port Authority.
Meantime, resurgent economies in Latin America -- where average annual growth rates exceed 6 percent -- bode well for South Florida, which has historically strong commercial and cultural ties to the region.
Scott has estimated that the $77 million the state contributed to deepening Miami's port will result in 30,000 permanent new jobs via more shipping.
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Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 801-5341.
