If Jeb Bush wins the Republican presidential nomination, he might have Mitt Romney to thank.
Bush was smart enough to plant his flag early, announcing six weeks ago that he was exploring running for president. That was enough for donors and staffers to join Bushs team early in the process and force Romney to bow to reality. Sure, Romney was at the head of the pack in the polls this month but that would not have lasted long once the knives came out. Nobody seemed enthused about yet another Romney presidential campaign. Republicans might like and respect Romney but they also think he had his shot, something the former nominee seemed to agree with as he bowed out on Friday.
There will be two Republican primaries in 2016. One will feature the darlings of the Republican establishment like Bush and Chris Christie. Thats the spot Romney filled and it helps both Bush and Christie that he is out of the race. Theres talk that Romney could throw his support behind Christie but, honestly, the New Jersey governor simply wont wear as well as Bush. Simply put, Bush is more in the Republican mainstream than Christie is, though the New Jersey governor got far better reviews than expected during his recent appearance in Iowa. But, by all accounts, Friday was a good day for Jeb Bush.
Theres another internal contest in the Republican primaries that is not as immediately affected by Romneys departure. This other primary will be a showdown to see who leads conservatives. If the establishment is divided with too many candidates, a strong conservative can win the nomination. But if the establishment choice is quickly determined, he will be able to run over the conservative opposition. Certainly that has been the case in recent years as Bob Dole, George W. Bush, John McCain and Romney himself ran over their conservative opponents.
Of course, there are plenty of potential Republican presidential candidates who are not impacted, at first, by Romney getting out of the fray. The likes of Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee and Ben Carson arent hurt in the short run by Romney leaving the table. But these conservatives could end up dividing the right, allowing yet another establishment favorite like Bush or Christie to win the Republican nomination. It has happened plenty of times over the years.
Bush still has a lot of work to do and he needs to keep an eye on a candidate who might be able to appeal to both establishment Republicans and conservatives -- namely Scott Walker but also, to a lesser extent, Marco Rubio if he decides to run. But even with that caveat, Bush is a clear winner from Romneys decision to head to the sidelines.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
