Outsiders are starting to find the 2016 presidential election to be fertile ground, which is bad news for Jeb Bush. This week, the former Florida governor weighed into foreign affairs, blaming the Obama administration -- and Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton -- for the current mess in the Middle East as Islamic State (IS) terrorism further destabilizes the region.
The Republican presidential hopeful went to bat for his brother, insisting the surge in Iraq worked and criticizing timetables being set up to draw down American forces. But, as the media quickly noted, Bush’s brother set up the timetable to reduce the number of military personnel in Iraq.
Bush is both helped and harmed by his family legacy. No Republican presidential ticket without a Bush on it has won the White House since 1972. Many of the GOP faithful, the activists more concerned with the party than conservative principles, still have fond memories of the two Bushes who sat in the Oval Office even as right-of-center discontent against the dynasty continues to grow.
But 2016 is shaping up as good year for outsiders -- and the Bush family has been here before. The first President Bush had to fend off Pat Buchanan in the Republican primaries back in 1992 while Washington insiders Bob Kerrey and Tom Harkin were eclipsed on the Democratic side by the unlikely triad of Bill Clinton, Jerry Brown and Paul Tsongas. Add Ross Perot to the mix and there was a perfect storm that swept George H.W. Bush, the ultimate insider whose path to power featured more appointed offices than elected ones, out of power.
So far, 2016 is looking like 1992. On the Republican side, a host of familiar officeholders have been overshadowed by Donald Trump, Ben Carson and now Carly Fiorina is making her move. Bernie Sanders is starting to make some noise against Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary. Trump might even be able to continue to harness that spirit if he makes a third-party bid and now Jesse Ventura is saying he would be open to be Trump's running mate if asked.
Bush might want to hit Clinton on foreign policy, but in doing so he is going against the political tide which, for the moment, favors outsiders. By bringing up memories of his brother’s presidency, Bush risks turning off plenty of voters who are fed up with Washington. The GOP electorate aren’t doves -- look at how Rand Paul is flopping -- but they aren’t chomping at the bit for more military activity in the Middle East almost 14 years after the 9/11 attacks. There’s a reason Lindsey Graham, easily the most vocal hawk in the Republican primaries, isn’t gaining much traction.
There are some good signs for Bush. Much of the GOP establishment continues to support him even as John Kasich starts moving up the ranks. This week, Dean Heller, a major power in the key caucus of Nevada, and Orrin Hatch fell in line behind Bush.
But Bush continues to face perils. Conservatives are still livid with him on immigration and Common Core. Bush also is starting to make some unforced errors. Besides attacking Clinton on foreign policy, this week Bush tried to take advantage of the buzz over Clinton using private email at the State Department and jabbed her for having a private server.
"To have a private server in your home, I mean, come on man,” Bush told reporters this week. “That doesn’t pass the smell test."
Only one problem. Bush has a private server in his home as well.
Despite past Bush successes, the former Florida governor is facing political headwinds this year. Voters aren’t happy with the way George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Harry Reid, Mitch McConnell, Nancy Pelosi, John Boehner and other politicians have run Washington. Bush -- much like Hillary Clinton -- is running into this headwind and self-inflicted wounds won’t help his chances of following his father's and brother's path to the White House.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
