As former Gov. Jeb Bush readies to launch his bid for the Republican presidential nomination on Monday, a new poll shows he is facing major competition from another favorite son of the Sunshine State.
St. Leo University released a poll on Wednesday which shows Bush still leads in the Florida primary but U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., is closing the gap.
The poll finds Bush ahead with 30 percent followed by Rubio with 24 percent. Three candidates -- Dr. Ben. Carson, U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and Gov. Scott Walker -- all take 7 percent apiece followed by former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas with 6 percent. Rubio is also the second choice of 29 percent of those surveyed while Bush takes second there with 12 percent.
A St. Leo poll from March showed Bush ahead with 31 percent, Rubio in second with 16 percent, Walker taking 10 percent and Carson at 9 percent.
“The surge for Sen. Rubio is significant and is easily the most interesting finding in our recent politics poll,” said Frank Orlando, a political science instructor at Saint Leo University. “Bush is still holding off Rubio in Florida, but the only factor keeping Rubio from the lead is the large number of conservative candidates who have siphoned his support. That is evidenced by how many respondents like Rubio as their second choice.”
When the race comes down to just the two candidates from Florida, Rubio is ahead with 48 percent followed by Bush with 40 percent.
The new poll shows that Florida Republicans increasingly think Rubio will win the nomination. Back in March, St. Leo found 38 percent of Florida Republicans thought Bush would win and only 9 percent thought Rubio would be the nominee. Now 34 percent think Bush will win and 27 percent say Rubio will end up as the nominee.
Sunshine State Republicans generally approve of both their favorite sons running for president, with 82 percent approving Rubio’s bid while 76 percent approve of Bush’s efforts. Only 14 percent of Florida Republicans disapprove of Rubio’s campaign while 23 percent disapprove of Bush’s.
The sample of Republicans came from a St. Leo poll of 535 Floridians taken from May 25-31 and had a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
