In what had become one of the worst-kept secrets in Florida, Gov. Charlie Crist announced Thursday that he is abandoning the Republican Party primary to pursue a U.S. Senate seat as an independent.
Speaking to a crowd of supporters in St. Petersburg late Thursday afternoon, Crist took aim at the partisanship on Capitol Hill.
"Our political system is broken. People are fed up with the gridlock," he said.
As a man without a party, Crist acknowledged he was entering "uncharted territory" with an independent run for Senate.
"The easy thing would have been for me to run for re-election as governor. But it's never been about doing what's easy for me," Crist said.
"We're going to take it straight to November. It's not one's club decision or the other. It's your decision to make.
"I need you, the people, more than ever," he told the cheering crowd.
By shifting to no-party status, Crist acknowledged months of political polls that have shown him trailing former House speaker Marco Rubio by 20-plus points in the Aug. 24 GOP primary.
Opinion polls have shown Crist far more competitive as an unaligned candidate in a three-way general election contest with Rubio and likely Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek.
Gov. Crist still doesnt get it," Rubio said after Crist's announcement. "This race is not about conservative vs. moderate, Republican vs. Democrat or, now, Republican vs. Democrat vs. Non-Party Affiliated," Rubio said. "This elections outcome was never going to hinge on whether he chose to run as a Republican."
After Crist declared himself an independent, Meek, a congressman from Miami, told CNN's Wolf Blitzer he is "absolutely" looking forward to President Barack Obama coming to Florida to campaign for him.
"I'm all in," he said of his Senate bid. "I'm giving up a safe congressional seat that my mother held."
"I can go into the White House and first-hand speak for Floridians," Meek said.
Crist, a moderate who has increasingly alienated Republicans roiled by Tea Party activists, incensed GOP legislative leaders this month when he vetoed an education reform measure, Senate Bill 6, authored by Republican Party Chairman Sen. John Thrasher, R-Jacksonville.
But while Crist was applauded by teachers and others opposed to SB 6, his claim to independent voters and Democrats is far from assured, political observers say.
The financial and logistical hurdles of running a campaign outside party channels -- and Florida's historical aversion to candidates who go that route -- could prove insurmountable, they say.
Mike Connolly, spokesman for the Washington, D.C.-based Club for Growth, whose early support for Rubio helped transform the former speaker's campaign from a long-shot quest into a fundraising powerhouse commanding double-digit leads in the polls, was quoted as saying:
"I wouldn't say that anybody's winning today. Nobody's gloating. But whatever the polls are today, that's as high as Charlie Crist will go.
"This isn't a situation like Sen. Arlen Specter's, D-Pa., where he can go to the fundraising base of the left -- the unions and so on -- to make up what he's lost. This is the high-water mark of the Crist campaign. It's all downhill from here."
Crist's strategy of peeling off Democratic votes runs against historical tides. Since 1998 no Democratic candidate for statewide office has won less than 78 percent of Florida's Democratic voters, according to a Pollster.com analysis.
Most polls show Crist winning roughly a third of self-declared independents. Even if he were to raise that share to half of those voters -- a very rosy scenario -- he still maxes out at around 35 percent of the electorate, Pollster.com said.
Al Cardenas, a former state GOP chairman and Crist supporter, who now would back Rubio in a three-way race, said he thought Crist would win less than 20 percent of the vote as a party-less candidate.
"He won't have the infrastructure around the state that he would have as a Republican," Cardenas said. "He will have absolutely no ground operation to count on."
Peter Brown, director of the Quinnipiac University poll that showed Crist trailing Rubio by 23 points as a Republican, called the governor's independent bid "a concession to reality."
But Brown agreed with Cardenas' assessment that political problems lay ahead for the governor.
"Crist has a better chance in a three-way general election, but he will face serious challenges maintaining that lead because most of the Republican organization that backed his election as governor has indicated it will support the GOP nominee," he said.
"Moreover, it is not clear how and where he will find the money to be competitive, because most politically active donors can be expected to stick with their party nominees.
"On the other hand," he added, "Crist has been a master politician, so no one should count him out."
An April 15 Quinnipiac poll showed Crist with the highest favorability rating 48 percent of the candidates. Rubio had a 36 percent favorable rating while Meek lagged at 18 percent.
Crist is planning a major fundraiser for Sunday in Miami in an effort to keep big donors from fleeing the campaign. Though Crist fashions himself as the "People's Governor," the event will be held at the exclusive Fisher Island enclave where his wife, Carole, has a home.
The latest campaign finance reports show Crist had raised more than $10 million for his primary bid, compared with $7 million collected by Rubio. Both campaigns are heavily bankrolled by real-estate groups and securities and investment firms. Meek has received nearly $5.7 million.
Texas Sen. John Cornyn, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told reporters in Washington he wants Crist to return the contributions made from his leadership PAC and said other Florida donors are seeking the same.
Cornyn said he's been playing "phone tag" with the governor "and quite honestly I've given up" trying to talk to him.
Responding to previous inquiries about refunding donations, Crist has declared, "The money's gone."
Daniel Smith, a University of Florida political science professor and director of the graduate political campaigning program, said he doubts Crist is under any legal obligation to return campaign contributions.
"I don't think he has to return a dime. Ethically, maybe there's a question, but there's no duplicity. If he gives (money) back for one person, he'll have to do it for everyone," Smth said.
Whether refunds are forthcoming, Cornyn suggested that Crist's "ability to raise money as an independent will be dramatically down" as the party shuts off its cash flow.
Republicans at the Capitol are clearly miffed at the governor.
House Majority Leader Adam Hasner, R-Delray Beach, filed an amendment to an ethics bill Friday to prohibitCrist from soliciting or accepting campaign contributions while legislation (including the budget) is pending. The Seminole Tribe, which benefited from the governor's billion-dollar casino compact, is a likely donor to Crist's lone-wolf candidacy.
On Thursday afternoon, rumors swirled that leading GOP lawmakers will walk out on closing ceremonies Friday. Typically, the conclusion of the legislative session is marked by feel-good speeches from the governor, House speaker and Senate president.
Party power will be felt on the November ballot, too. Under Florida law, the Democratic and Republican candidates top the list, followed by established minor parties, such as the Libertarian Party. Depending on how many parties qualify for the contest, Crist, under "No Party Affiliation," could be seven or eight names down the roster of candidates.
A month ago, in a "Fox News Sunday" debate with Rubio, Crist dismissed the possibility he would run for the Senate as anything other than a Republican. Calling himself a "Reagan Republican," he touted his lifelong GOP credentials.
But in subsequent weeks, amid deteriorating poll numbers, Crist began uttering a new two-word mantra: "Things change."
On Thursday, he rallied his supporters in St. Petersburg, saying, "I believe in democracy and that people have the right to choose -- always."
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Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 801-5341.
