Florida's Presidency 5 straw poll looms ever-larger now that Rick Perry is in the race and Tim Pawlenty is out.
Pawlenty figured to make a strong showing in the Sept. 24 poll of 3,500 GOP delegates in Orlando. The former Minnesota governor had lined up support from top Sunshine State politicos, including the next three speakers of the Florida House, former Jeb Bush staffer and money man Phil Handy, and omnipresent political guru Justin Sayfie.
But when Pawlenty bowed out after finishing a distant third in the Iowa straw poll, the P5 field opened up.
Perry is expected to compete in the P5 straw poll, along with U.S. Reps. Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul, the first- and second-place finishers in Iowa.
"Paul is in and we feel good about Perry participating," said Brian Hughes, spokesman for the Republican Party of Florida. Hughes also indicated that Bachmann would likely confirm for the three-day P5 event at the Orange County Convention Center, possibly as early as this week.
"The landscape changed this weekend. With Bachmann's strong showing, there are a lot of great candidates to make P5 a pretty important event," Hughes said.
Perry spokesman Mark Miner would not confirm Monday that the governor will vie in the straw poll, but Perry got a boost when the father-son duo of state Sen. Don Gaetz, R-Niceville, and state Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Shalimar, endorsed him.
Reps. Jeff Brandes, R-St. Petersburg, and Clay Ingram, R-Pensacola, also jumped on board.
Pawlenty backers are keeping their powder dry ... for now.
State Rep. John Tobia, R-Melbourne, said, "The Iowa sample is not indicative of what's to come. Bachmann got a bump in name ID and fundraising. Whether it pushes her toward her electoral goal, I doubt it."
Tobia, a P5 delegate as a legislator, also questioned Perry's "baggage."
"It's hard to run to the right when you were running Al Gore's [1988] presidential campaign in Texas," he said.
PERRY GETS A MIXED RECEPTION FROM TEA PARTY
Many of Florida's mainstream Republicans who appear skittish about the hard-edged conservatism of Bachmann and Paul are warming to Perry as a viable alternative to front-runner Mitt Romney, who has said he will not participate in any straw polls, including P5.
I would assume that most of Tim Pawlentys supporters will gravitate toward other governors such as Mitt Romney and Rick Perry," said Brian H. Graham, a Republican consultant who operates Dixie Strategies.
Roger Stone, a veteran GOP consultant, said Romney is "still the most likely nominee," adding that "Perry needs some establishment types" to gain traction in the race.
"[RPOF] Chairman [Dave] Bitner welcomes Perry. Clearly, he's a strong candidate with a lot of momentum," Hughes said.
Two powerful subsets in Florida's Republican Party -- tea party activists and religious conservatives -- could have a deciding say in the P5 polling next month.
Perry's reception among tea partiers has been mixed while Bachmann has been dubbed the "queen of the tea party" movement nationally.
"[Perry] has been making my head explode. The same guy who ushered in the Dream Act for the great state of Texas, and was a liberal Democrat not too many years back ... I did not trust his recent prayer shenanigans for a second," said Danita Kilkullen, who heads Tea Party Fort Lauderdale.
Tom Gaitens, Florida field director for the Washington, D.C.-based FreedomWorks tea party group, said the movement is "very much split."
"Bachmann is well-liked, but Paul has great sympathies among teapartiers. Perry would be a third choice, but growing."
Gaitens predicts that "mainstream establishment GOPers will go to Perry or Romney" and that will result in a "three-horse race" among Perry, Bachmann and Romney.
"Clearly, Bachmann made her move through the media circuit this weekend. She was asked a series of questions that Democrats are never asked, and she performed well."
Daniel Smith, political science professor at the University of Florida, speculated that many Florida Republicans could jump on the Perry bandwagon. But Smith also cautioned that Perry's erratic stand on immigration "hurts him with the tea party."
ROMNEY COULD LOSE FLORIDA BY NOT COMPETING IN POLL
Andrew Nappi, state director of the Florida Tenth Amendment Center, remains strong for Paul after the congressman's close second-place showing in Iowa.
"If it were anyone else, a statistical dead heat for first would be heralded by the media. In Ron's case, it highlighted the third-place efforts [of Pawlenty].
"I think Paul will have a very good showing in Florida, although the cliche comments of the media and the GOP establishment types will be heard here as well," Nappi said.
Christian conservatives are looking forward to the P5 showdown as a test of their message.
"Florida is the next big thing," said John Stemberger, who heads the Florida Family Policy Council.
The group will host Bachmann, who will keynote its policy awards dinner on Aug. 27 in Orlando. But Stemberger would not say which candidate he favors going in to P5.
"Ask me after September," he said.
Anthony Verdugo, head of the Miami-based Christian Family Coalition, isn't divulging his choice either, but said that Romney is making a mistake by skipping the P5 straw poll.
"Florida is not Iowa, and he needs at some point to begin to compete for Republican votes," Verdugo observed. "He's got to face the voters, so why not now?"
Sizing up the field, Brian Crowley, a Palm Beach-based political consultant, said, "Bachmann could use the Florida straw poll to show that she has strength in a major state. She doesn't need to win it but she needs to finish in the top three.
"Perry's campaign should be taking shape by then, and if he is looking like the GOP front-runner, winning the Florida straw poll [would] solidify hiscampaign.
"With Perry in the race, does [Romney] alter his strategy of waiting for New Hampshire and try to do well in the straw poll?" Crowley mused.
Palm Beach County GOP Chairman Sid Dinerstein said the path to victory is far from predictable at this early juncture.
"While the Perry/Romney/Bachmann story seems credible, the primary structure encourages gamesmanship from all over the political map," he said, noting that open primaries in some states allow Democrats to vote for Republicans and proportionate primaries help runners-up to stay competitive.
"No need for anyone to get ahead of themselves. Bring the whole world to Orlando Sept. 22-24 and we'll do some more sorting out," Dinerstein said.
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Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 801-5341.
