Five Republican presidential hopefuls have ties to the Sunshine State in the most unpredictable battle for the GOP nod in decades. The past year saw some of them rise to great heights while others who were thought to be major contenders flopped. Here’s a look at how the five candidates with links to Florida did in 2015.
Jeb Bush. The former Florida governor started 2015 strong, showing he could raise serious cash and keeping Mitt Romney on the sidelines. But things fell apart for Bush as his positions on immigration and Common Core hindered him with conservative primary voters. Bush also failed to keep Marco Rubio out of the race. Not having run a campaign since 2002, Bush often appeared rusty on the stump and flopped badly in the first debates, usually coming up on the short side in clashes with Rubio and Donald Trump. Certainly Bush turned in some better performances in the more recent debates but he remains a major underdog in key states like Iowa and New Hampshire. That last state is crucial for Bush but he’s hurt by Rubio, Chris Christie and John Kasich there. As the year ends, Bush will have to run the table to follow his father’s and brother’s steps to the White House. Despite spending too much already, the Bush team and the Super PACs behind it still has plenty of cash to burn but plenty of Republican voters already have a negative impression of the former Florida governor.
Ben Carson. The celebrated surgeon moved to Florida after retiring from medicine and he had a roller coaster year as he sought the Republican presidential nomination. Carson was gaining ground and at the top of some polls, especially in Iowa. Conservatives connected with his jabs at political correctness, calls for a greater role for religion in the public square and his fight against Obamacare. Polls show Republican voters still see Carson very favorably but he is losing ground as Ted Cruz and Rubio have leapfrogged him. Unlike Trump, Carson has been hurt badly as voters worry more about terrorism and national security and question his experience on those issues. In fact, Carson’s numbers have been on the decline since the Islamic jihadist terror attacks in Paris back in November. There’s still a chance Carson can turn things around, especially if Cruz, Rubio and Trump get into a food fight that he avoids, but it will be tough for the good doctor to get back to the head of the pack.
Mike Huckabee. The former Arkansas governor moved to the Panhandle after he ran for president in 2008. In his first presidential bid, Huckabee did well in the debates and his affable persona and good humor helped him upset Mitt Romney in Iowa. But things are far different this time out. After mulling it over, Huckabee gave up his show on Fox News to run a second time. Huckabee’s social conservatism and populist take on economics and pushes against Washington simply aren’t connecting this time as other candidates have beat him to the punch. After failing to make an impression in the first debates, Huckabee was banished to the undercard where he has not shone. In recent days, Huckabee has said he will end his campaign if he doesn’t finish in the top three in Iowa where polls show him lagging behind the top candidates. Republicans still like Huckabee based on his favorability numbers but conservatives who supported him in 2008 have moved behind Carson, Cruz, Trump and other candidates. Huckabee has to move quickly to get those voters back if he wants to last past Iowa but the window is rapidly closing on him.
Marco Rubio. After a series of strong debate performances, Rubio has moved to the top tier though still trails Cruz and Bush. While his numbers are starting to dip in key states, Rubio had a good year on the whole, moving past Bush and Kasich to claim his current spot in the field. But now Rubio is starting to draw more fire on immigration and missing votes in the Senate. His campaign operations are also drawing scrutiny and Chris Christie in particular is hitting him for not paying enough attention to New Hampshire. Rubio is hoping he’ll be the last candidate standing who is acceptable to the GOP leadership and Republicans more concerned on backing the most electable option in the general election than going for the most conservative choice. While he has his work cut out for him in the weeks to come, Rubio had a good 2015 which puts him in contention for the nomination.
Donald Trump. There’s no doubt who won 2015 in the Republican presidential contest. Trump’s stances on immigration, Muslims and take on Washington led to jeers from liberals and the media but cheers from conservatives and Republicans. Granted, Trump has made some missteps which would have doomed other candidates and could hurt him in the general election if he gets the Republican nod. But Trump has led the polls at the national level and in most key states and his supporters are committed to him. One thing Trump has to be careful of in the weeks to come will be what happens to supporters of fading candidates. Ted Cruz has caught Trump in Iowa as conservatives hopped off the Carson bandwagon but chose to back the senator from Texas instead of another candidate with no Washington experience. Still, for the moment, Trump is at the head of the pack.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
