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History Says Trump Unlikely to Win the Nomination

August 31, 2015 - 1:00pm

The fact that Donald Trump is currently leading in national polls in the Republican race for president is interesting -- but hardly a predictor of the outcome of the election. In fact, based on the recent history of presidential elections, it is not likely Trump will be the Republican nominee.

In the last presidential election without an incumbent running, front-runners in both major parties emerged -- yet neither was nominated by their party. In 2007, the year leading up to that election, Democratic candidate for president Hillary Clinton had a strong lead in the polls, as did Republican candidate Rudy Giuliani.  

By March 2007, despite a large field of candidates, Giuliani was favored by 44 percent of likely Republican voters, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll. John McCain was second in that poll with 20 percent. A month later Giuliani was polling near the magical 50 percent mark -- receiving the nod by 47 percent of Republicans polled by CBS. From that point forward, Mayor Giuliani led almost every major poll leading up to the Iowa caucuses.

But then a funny thing happened. The people in the states started voting. Social conservative Mike Huckabee struck a chord with Iowa caucus-goers on Jan. 3, 2008, and placed first with 34 percent of the vote. The next day, national polls quickly shifted with Huckabee suddenly out front in a USA Today poll of Republican voters with 25 percent, followed by Giuliani with 20 percent, McCain with 19 percent and Fred Thompson with 12 percent.

The political ground shifted again just five days later when John McCain won the New Hampshire primary with 37 percent of the vote, followed by Mitt Romney with 32 percent, Huckabee with 11 percent, Giuliani with 8 percent, Ron Paul with 7 percent, and Fred Thompson with just over 1 percent. From that point forward, John McCain took the lead in the national polls and kept that lead all the way to the Republican National Convention, where he formally accepted the Republican nomination for president. 

Compare that history to the latest CNN poll which finds Trump polls nationally at 24 percent. Rather than serve as an indicator of who will win the Republican nomination for president, the national polls actually reveal that the current front-runner is not in a particularly strong position with five months to go before the Iowa caucuses. In 2008 Giuliani was in a far stronger position, polling nationally at 47 percent. Yet he failed to win the Republican nomination.

While it is true that Trump currently has a slight lead in the latest poll of Iowa voters, it appears that his support is driven almost entirely by his stand on immigration. But what happens when the social conservative Iowa voters start to truly examine Trump’s record of supporting the Obama stimulus plan, of shifting jobs to China and India for his clothing line, of supporting many Democrats -- including Hillary Clinton -- not to mention his pro-choice stance? And what if someone reveals that Trump has actually hired some of the illegal immigrants he rails against on a daily basis? Even the accusation could be fatal to his campaign. It is easy to see how the Trump campaign could come off the tracks in Iowa.  

Granted, Trump doesn’t have to win Iowa to win the nomination. After all, in 2008 John McCain finished third in Iowa. But the difference is that Trump is running an angry campaign based almost entirely on the belief that he is smarter, tougher, and more qualified to be president than anyone else on the planet -- because he says so. If Trump fails to win Iowa, it is entirely possible that his support will evaporate overnight as people decide, “I never really liked that guy.”

As we enter the real campaign cycle -- and voters start to pay attention and thoughtfully analyze, scrutinize and question the candidates for president -- name ID and bold statements won’t be enough. It is under this microscope of voter scrutiny that Trump’s real weakness could do him in. He seems to think that he can just pick up the phone and bully world leaders into doing whatever he wants. Apparently, “the Donald” is unaware that heads of state with standing armies tend to have big, huge egos, too -- and they are unlikely to respond favorably to Trump’s “because I say so” approach to All Things Government.

While it is impressive that Trump has quickly risen to the top of national polls, it is more likely the result of voter discontent with Washington, D.C., than it is a reflection of deep-rooted support for Trump. He has simply become the mouthpiece for voter dissatisfaction with government. Despite the current poll results, Trump is a long way from winning the Republican nomination. Moreover, based on prior presidential election history, it is more likely than not that he will not head the Republican ticket in 2016.    

Jeff Kottkamp served as Florida’s 17th lieutenant governor and also served three terms in the Florida House of Representatives. He is president of Jeff Kottkamp PA. 

Comments

So polls matter, except when they don't.

Lawful Hispanics & all Races should Favor Border Security to Defend the American Dream. I don’t think there should be a price tag on me, my family, co-workers or anybody else that calls America legally there home? But that is precisely what is happening, as the higher echelon in both political parties is selling this country to the highest bidder. Daily the lobbyists are crowding into the chambers of the Democrats and Republicans with blank checks or brown bags full of hundred dollar bills to buying into the issues that is favorable to there corporations and industry. Cronyism is one of big negative factors, where friends and wealthy donors call in favors. They Rule the roost and keep both the lower Senators and House Congressman and women under abeyance? Speaker John Boehner head man of the GOP, who has been an absolutely failed for the Conservative side who funded King Obama’s illegal alien ongoing amnesty, as perhaps he has furtive ties to the Leftist administration. Or Senator Harry Reid who was the once majority leader refused to bring any key legislative bills to the floor. By securing our borders guarantees that we defend the culture we have built. Having the right of passage into the United States – completed through the legal conduit – is the very first test towards the American Dream. If you don’t come to America by applying for a visa and you decide to cross the border illegally, you have automatically deprived yourself the American Dream, the same American Dream you set after in the first place? By violating America’s laws, you’re bringing the lawlessness of your home country with you. This persuade legal Hispanics, Latino’s and other South Americans, Black, white, Pacific Islanders and a range of other nationalities and races, that you must conform to the Rule of Law. AS A NEW AMERICAN, DO YOU WANT THIS MAGNIFICENT NATION TO TURN INTO A THIRD WORLD LAND? REMEMBER A COUNTRY WITHOUT A BORDER, IS NO LONGER A COUNTRY? IN TRUTH THE DEMOCRAT ZEALOTS OR THE REPUBLICANS BOTH WANT CHEAP LABOR OR EXTRA VOTES TO SEAL THEIR CHANCE FOR THE WEALTHY DONORS. IT’S A HUGE WORKFORCE FOR EMPLOYERS AND MASSES OF CONSUMERS OF PRODUCTS. THE LEFT IT’S TRIUMPH WITH ILLEGAL VOTES TO ENSURE POWER IN WASHINGTON FOREVER. THE LOSERS ARE THE LAWFUL IMMIGRANTS, BUT THE LEFTIST MEDIA WORLD, WILL NEVER TELL THE TRUTH—JUST MORE LIES AND PROPAGANDA? LAWFUL RESIDENTS are failing themselves, their families if you think that the incoming rush of illegal immigrants/migrants is going to help your future, then you’re dead wrong. Millions of lawfully arrived immigrants will suffer the most, as your desire for a new life is compromised of those broke the law. Minority legal aliens will suffer just as all Americans, as the employers who demand cheap labor will relieve you of your jobs, in the name of profit. You might not like what Donald Trump has to say, but his actions to build the wall, retune E-Verify as MANDATORY and what other acts he uses to remove the millions of illegal aliens is justified and it should be apparent to that legal immigrants and everybody else who has the right to be here is protected by the US Constitution. Not what any President says or their Administration, but a right of sovereignty. Donald Trump is a tough businessman and although I have good vibes for Mr. Ben Carson, he doesn’t have the hard persona to take on Russia’s Putin or King Obama’s Iran treaty. Trump will defy the odds and march America back to a solidified economy and will end the illegal immigration mockery. I have no doubt the wall will go up, along the 700 to 2000 miles of nothing but a few strand of rusty barbed wire. But it must be enforced with Nationwide MANDATORY E-Verify to chase down bad employers hiring illegal aliens that are being drawn into our country as an unending influx of foreigners. If ‘Kate’s Law’ has not materialized by the end of his Majesty’s Imperial Court conclusion, the illegal ‘Sanctuary City’ policies will be rescinded by Trump as President, but unlikely under Jeb Bush, Hillary Clinton. The uproar began with the slaying of Katherine Steinle, in the tarnished Sanctuary City of San Francisco, California. Especially if Jeb Bush or Hillary scrambled out of the rich feathered nests, I cannot see any worthwhile legislation passing Congress. None of the other presidential contenders have said little about the illegal alien invasion, and are staying well clear of the controversial subject. These candidates should be more knowledgeable of subject and the rampant costs to the US taxpayers. In an early report (mainly referring to taxes) generated by the illegal migrants/ immigrants, and then subtracted the cost of taxpayer aid to those foreign usurpers. The aid includes education, subsidized housing (Section 8), food stamps, child tax credits (fraudulent in most cases), and medical expenses. Overall, the report found illegal migrants/aliens cost taxpayers a total of $113 billion a year in 2002.The report then “accounts for taxes paid by illegal aliens [which is] about $13 billion a year, resulting in a net cost to taxpayers of about $100 billion.” While Mr. Trump jumped into spotlight by telling the facts as he saw it, and the massive implications of the failure to keep the open borders sealed; mostly by this Presidents illegal executive orders. In the last 6 years there has been little proposal to stop the flow of foreigners mainly by the interruption of ‘k’ street lobbyists ready to buy the politician goodwill on behalf of the wealthy donors, who don’t want cheap labor being drawn to a halt. With no closing stage under any future politicians vote except for Trump and Senator Ted Cruz, nothing would ever been done to restrain the damage to our society, when even a current President flouts the law.

Hmmmm. Let's see. We have a major problem with bullying among youth and in our schools. The majority of writers would put a candidate who thus far has assured us he will get what we need simply by bullying others into submission . Could there be a correlation between your viewpoints and the beliefs and actions of your children? Just a thought folks.

Kids have been bullied for about 2,000 years. Makes em tough. All this social media nonsense is a lot more at fault than what the kids do in the schoolyard. We have turned into such a PC pantywaist country that you have to look around before you tell a funny joke. You think our kids have it tough? Have you taken a look at Syria lately? Or Ukraine? Somalia ain't doing too good either. My first choice for president would be a resurrected Andrew Jackson in charge of 5,000 Army Rangers and Navy Seals. It would not take Old Hickory long to beat the bad guys into submission. Before the country is completely gone to hell, bullying should be the least of our policies. We need a leader that wants to kill our enemies. And not take 20 years and 20 million dollars to do it. Trump comes closest.

Uh huh. I rest my case

Let's see if we can't "boil this all down": WHO is Jeff Kottkamp...EXACTLY ??? AND, why, in the world, would HIS opinion matter?!?!?...MORE IMPORTANTLY, why would HIS matter more than YOURS? (AND, what the heck is a "Jeff Kottkamp PA" that he is "President" of ???....Why he's just another "melon-head" pundit with a "whiteboard" trying to "herd sheep"! baaa aaa aaa !!!

This is NOT a typical election cycle. When is the last time you remember, three top tier, non-political candidates riding high in polls? People are SICK of establishment GOP candidates (e.g., Romney, McCain, Bush). This is a new frontier with the GOP voters going for independent candidates, free of special interest lobbyist money. Trump will prevail.

Not surprisingly, a third rate political hack bashes Trump. He does not understand where he would have a place at the public trough if Trump were elected. I have my doubts about the The Donald getting the nomination. But I hope he does and I would certainly vote for him. Politicians like Kottkamp would be over. Tell me again....what did Jeff Kottkamp ever do?

Jeff, very well written...and I hope and pray that you're right on all points!...Trump is not the man to lead this country and I agree with you that he''l flounder over time...I don't think we need a Prez who calls other people silly, childish names - even if he's right...voters will hopefully be looking for a "positive" campaign rather than one of "anger...keep writing because you're on to something!

"Recent history" no longer counts,.. neither does "wishful speculation" by mediocre politicians and pundits. GO DONALD! (THIS Democrat IS voting for you...and for EVERY Cabinet and Bureaucrat member you appoint; can't EVER be as bad as the incompetent Obama Administration, including the "Lying Clinton Hag").

Thank you, Jeff for your excellent and thoughtful analysis I have faith in the American voters, and truly believe that they will not place a"Bully", like Trump, in the White House. He is truly an embarrassment for the Republican Party. I would love to see the "Dream Team" of Bush and Carson get the Nomination of the Republican Party!

"Ester",...Ever read anything about President Teddy Roosevelt ?....He was a "Bully" too,..and a very successful one at that.

What you say bodes poorly for Jeb Bush. Languishing at 7% in the polls, what is likely to happen as voters start to vote and llok closely at his immigration plan which is to "love" those who have "loved" us by breaking our laws and intruding illegally and taking advantage of our beneficence? What will voters do as they look closely at his support for the Federalization of control over education to the emerging evidence of the disaster of that fact. Finally, what will voters do when they realize his "education reform" proposals he passed into Florida law with John Thrasher's aide (SB 2120 - 1911) imposed a $5 billion dollar fiscal disaster on Floridians (getting only $700 million back from Obama), destroyed the role of teachers in public education and micromaged the classroom with Pam Stewart holding all the power, all to enrich himself and his cronies? He is doomed.

Amen!

Jeff, you're full of crap. The reason Trump WILL get the nomination is because every citizen is tired of the same party lines of promises never kept and unrealistic dreams of our currently elected so-called leaders! The last thing any of us need is a history lesson from some mid century has been. Maybe you should write some notes to the elected officials of TODAY and tell them how to keep their words on promises they give. Oh, I forgot, you certainly played political football when you served, and not very well as I recall!

Mark---I see you are a graduate of the Trump School of Political Etiquette. Insulting people and complaining about the problems of the country doesn't get us any closer to solving those problems. If our great nation is going to prosper in the future we need a leader that unites us as a people---not divides us.

Uhhh "JK",...pay attention, Trump IS uniting Americans ! ,If you want to teach etiquette,.. you can start by teaching it to the vindictive, insulting, obnoxious, America hating OBAMA and his entire Administration.

Comments are now closed.

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