Over four million Floridians have voted in the 2016 election with only a week to go until Election Day, and Hispanics are strongly outperforming their 2012 numbers while black voters are trailing behind.
On Tuesday, totals for early voting and vote-by-mail ballot returns topped 4 million with Republicans and Democrats running neck-and-neck in a state which could swing either way during this year’s election -- but Republicans have a slight edge over Democrats, outperforming their 2012 vote by mail numbers and their early voting numbers.
Some notable developments in the 2016 election: Republicans currently lead Democrats in voting, carrying 40.4 percent of the vote while Democrats take 40 percent. As of this article’s release, GOP voters lead Democrats by 14,000 ballots.
White voters make up 69 percent of the electorate, but minority groups are changing up their game this presidential election cycle.
Hispanics have turned out to the polls this presidential election cycle at much higher numbers. 2016’s totals are already a blowout compared to their 2012 early voting and vote by mail totals.
Hispanics make up only 14 percent of the Florida electorate, but this year they’re proving to be a voting bloc to be reckoned with since they are turning out at a much higher rate.
According to data from the conservative-leaning Associated Industries of Florida, Hispanics have currently cast 554,000 ballots, which is 32,000 more than where they wrapped up the entire early voting and vote by mail period in 2012 (521,000 ballots).
Voter enthusiasm doesn’t seem to be as high in other minority communities.
Enthusiasm over the presidential election has lagged behind with African Americans in 2016, who are 18 percent behind their interest level in 2012 when Barack Obama ran for his second term.
African-Americans tend to turn out in high numbers for early in-person voting, but that’s not the case this year. In 2012, black voters cast 25 percent of early ballots, according to data from University of Florida political science professor Dan Smith.
It was because of the black turnout that Democrats boasted a lead over Republicans in ballots cast in 2012, but they haven’t been as enthusiastic this year and haven’t come out to the polls, so Republicans have held onto their lead. This year, Republicans are ahead of Dems by 14,000 votes.
Voter enthusiasm is lagging behind with millennials, too, whose interest level is eight percent behind their 2012 level. Around 459,000 voters between the ages of 18-34 had cast their ballots which is over 50 percent of their 2012 voting, according to AIF totals.
If these trends continue, it’s possible Republicans have an opportunity to gain ground and it becomes likelier that Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump will win the Sunshine State.
Polls, however, have shown Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leading Trump in Florida. Over the last week both campaigns have spent significant time in Florida, which is essential to victory for either candidate.
But Clinton has a problem with black voters, who haven’t been turning out for her like they did for Obama, who made history as the country’s first black president. Fortunately for Clinton, most Hispanics prefer her to Trump, but she still is lagging behind in communities that typically should support her at a much higher rate.
Election Day is Nov. 8.
Reach reporter Allison Nielsen by email at allison@sunshinestatenews.com or follow her on Twitter: @AllisonNielsen.
