Former U.S. Sec. of State Hillary Clinton is a heavy favorite over U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., in the Florida Democratic presidential primary on March 15, two new polls find.
Quinnipiac University released a poll of likely Democratic primary voters on Friday morning which shows Clinton taking 59 percent while Sanders has the support of 33 percent.
Almost all Florida Democrats--81 percent--say their minds are made up but 17 percent of them say they can change their minds in the final days. But most Clinton supporters--81 percent--say their minds are mind up and 82 percent of Sanders backers say the same thing.
"This has been a turbulent political year, but the Florida Democratic primary looks like a blow-out,” said Peter Brown, the assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, on Friday.
“With her 26-point lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders, Secretary Hillary Clinton would have to undergo a political meltdown of historic proportions to lose this contest.
"Yes, Sen. Sanders has made up ground in earlier contests, but they were smaller states," Brown continued. "Florida is the third most populous state. The type of grass roots organizing that stood Sanders in good stead in Iowa and New Hampshire just isn't doable in mega-state Florida where TV commercials are the coin of the realm.
"There is other good news for Secretary Clinton other than the horserace numbers in this poll,” Brown added. “After seeing Sanders cut into her traditional big margin among female voters in earlier contests, the sisterhood seems strongly in her corner. She defeats Sanders almost 3-1 among women likely Florida Democratic primary voters."
As Brown noted, Clinton did well with women in Florida, taking 69 percent of them while only 24 percent are behind Sanders. But there is a gender gap and Sanders leads Clinton with male voters 47 percent to 43 percent.
Sanders does well with voters 44 and younger, taking 51 percent of them while 39 percent are for Clinton. But Clinton beats him 64 percent to 28 percent with voters between 45 and 64. Clinton also runs off with the support of seniors, taking 73 percent of them while only 21 percent are for Sanders.
More than a third of Florida Democrats--36 percent--say the economy and jobs are the most important issues while 16 percent say health-care is the most important issue. No other issue cracks single digits.
The poll of 476 likely Florida Democratic primary voters was taken from Feb. 21-Feb. 24 and had a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percent.
Public Policy Polling (PPP), a Democratic-aligned pollster, released a look at the Florida Democratic primary on late Thursday night which shows Clinton ahead by a similar margin. Clinton leads the PPP poll with 57 percent while Carson takes 32 percent.
“Things really are looking a lot better for Hillary Clinton in March,” said Dean Debnam, the president of PPP. “Florida makes another Southern state where she has a dominant lead.”
More than three quarters of those surveyed--76 percent--say they’re “firmly committed" to their candidate but 24 percent are open to changing their minds. Unlike the Quinnipiac poll, the PPP survey shows Clinton’s support is firmer than Sanders’ as 85 percent of her backers are “firmly committed” to her while 61 percent of Sanders’ backers say the same about their candidate.
African American Democrats break Clinton’s way 68 percent to 26 percent but she also leads Sanders 54 percent to 34 percent with whites and 54 percent to 40 percent with Hispanics. The poll shows seniors are also an important part of Clinton’s lead in Florida as she gets 66 percent of them while 23 percent are for Sanders.
Clinton is seen as favorable by 68 percent of Florida Democrats while 23 percent see her as unfavorable. Sanders is seen in a favorable light by 52 percent of those surveyed while 24 percent see him unfavorably and 25 percent are not sure about him.
The PPP poll of 388 likely Democratic primary voters was taken from Feb. 24-Feb. 25 and had a margin of error of +/- 5 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
