Businessman Donald Trump, wind at his back, is headed to the Sunshine State later this week. He continues to take the fight to former Gov. Jeb Bush and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio in their own backyard.
Trump is scheduled to hit Florida on Saturday to hold a noontime rally at the Sarasota Fairgrounds. It’s just the latest sign that the real estate mogul and TV personality thinks he has a chance of winning the Florida primary March 15 -- and his campaign is over the target on that assumption.
At the Republican Party of Florida’s (RPOF) Sunshine Summit in Orlando earlier this month, there were four presidential candidates who stood out above the others in terms of their support: Dr. Ben Carson, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, Rubio and Trump. Bush supporters simply did not have the same excitement and enthusiasm for their candidate. The Cruz and Rubio efforts were well organized but so was the Trump camp.
There was something of an assumption that Carson and Trump would take a hit in the polls after the Islamist terrorist attacks in Paris earlier this month. Certainly that’s been the case with Carson. But Trump remains at the top of the national polls and in surveys of key states like New Hampshire and Florida. A FAU poll of Florida Republicans taken after the attacks and released last week shows Trump has a double digit lead over Rubio, his nearest rival.
Trump’s message on immigration might not play well with some Republicans in southeast Florida or in places like Orlando that rely on tourism but it resonates with many conservatives across the Sunshine State. Last month, Trump pulled a large crowd when he spoke in Jacksonville and he certainly appeals to many conservatives across the northern part of state. Trump will have to fight off Cruz for many of these voters and Rubio will try to appeal in the Panhandle and the First Coast with their large military and veterans populations.
Unlike where the Carson team is now, Trump should be fairly well organized in Florida. Joe Gruters is one of his campaign chairs and has been one of the more effective Republican leaders at the county level. Susie Wiles is also one of Trump’s chairs in Florida and she has shown her metal in helping get Rick Scott elected and in other campaigns.
Trump will also benefit if Carson fades and Carly Fiorina remains stuck lagging behind the other candidates. In recent election cycles, Florida Republicans have shown a preference for backing candidates who have never held elected office over career politicians: Scott over Bill McCollum; Pam Bondi over Jeff Kottkamp and Holly Benson; Herman Cain winning the Presidency V straw poll; Ted Yoho over Cliff Stearns; and helping propel Curt Clawson, Ron DeSantis, David Jolly and Trey Radel into open congressional seats. Trump’s lack of electoral experience is a distinct plus with a large segment of Florida Republicans.
Of course, there are still four months to go until Florida holds its primary and early states like Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada will greatly shape the race. But right now Trump is a contender to win Florida and has shown far more staying power at the national level and in the Sunshine State than most of the political class expected. Trump smells opportunity in Florida which is why he headed to Sarasota later this week.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
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Trump and other politicians
BOLO: Extreme Far left
Because I surf the E
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The Donald can no doubt be
GO TRUMP! Hillary who?
"Underestimating"---"going
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"Buffoon"..? Think Obama.
"Buffoon"..? Think Obama.
Be careful what you wish for