The statistics and trends may not be with Democrat Tim Huth in his race for the Florida House District 26 seat, but he still sees a path to victory.
The former deputy superintendent of Volusia County schools is contending with Republican Fred Costello, the current mayor of Ormond Beach, to replace Pat Patterson, R-Deland, who is term-limited.
House District 26 covers parts of north Volusia and south Flagler counties and contains nearly 2,500 more registered Republicans than Democrats. But Huth is counting on Democrats and independents, who make up 21 percent of the electorate, to give him the edge.
That is a significant voting bloc (no-party-affiliated voters) that is going to have an impact on the outcome of this election, Huth said.
Other factors are also working against Huth. National polls show an enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats, and a recent report showed the GOP has already cashed in 200,000 more votes than Democrats in early voting.
Costello is also outspending Huth by more than a 2:1 margin. Huth has raised $120,000 ($20,000 from the Florida Democratic Party) and spent $63,000 as of Oct. 8. Costello raised $234,000 ($27,000 from the Republican Party of Florida) and spent $143,000 as of Oct. 8.
Huth is not ignorant of his disadvantages in the race, but is convinced his campaign has been able to reach out to independents.
When I look at the trends I do recognize that, but I also believe that my message has been out there for a long time, Huth said.
Costello thinks that message is misrepresenting his views to voters. He says his statements on taxes and the state budget were taken out of context by Huths campaign mailers.
Ive said Im willing to look at a sales tax on Internet sales as long as there's no net increase in revenue, Costello said, adding that his opponents campaign seized on that without mentioning his desire to cut the budget.
To be blunt, I feel confident, but the other side has sent out so much negative trash, theres some people who dont know what to think, he said.
When it comes to turning the economy around and creating jobs, Costello focuses on eliminating bureaucratic regulations that constrain businesses, and Huth speaks of creating tax breaks and incentives to lure businesses to Florida.
Both candidates are looking to distinguish themselves and their views ahead of the election. Huth touts his background in education policy and says he will be more of an advocate for public schools, whereas Costello supports vouchers and charter schools. Costello focuses on their differences in fiscal policy.
Im the guy that says we need to cut the state budget instead of raise taxes, Costello said.
With only a few days left in the election, both campaigns are focused on getting bodies to the polls.
I believe that the key to either of us winning is the individual that gets out the vote, Huth said.
I always have the attitude that you run like youre 5 points down, Costello said.
Reach Gray Rohrer at grohrer@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
