Republicans have the best shot at picking up Florida's two new congressional seats next year, a district-by-district analysis indicates.
GOP congressional districts around the state have experienced heavier-than-average growth in voter registration over the past eight years, while Democrat-held districts have grown far more slowly.
With congressional boundaries being redrawn for the 2012 elections, both parties are jousting for advantage. Assuming that the increases in voter registration mirror increases in the yet-to-be-released 2010 Census numbers, faster-growing Republican enclaves would appear to be spawning grounds for new GOP districts.
Florida's congressional allotment is due to expand from 25 seats to 27 seats in 2012. Republicans currently hold 19 of the state's 25 U.S. House seats.
"It looks very promising for Republicans to grab those [additional] seats," said Rick Wilson, a GOP strategist based in North Florida.
The state's five fastest-growing congressional districts are all represented by Republicans:
- David Rivera's CD 25 (voter registration up 43 percent since 2002).
- Richard Nugent's CD 5 (up 41 percent).
- Daniel Webster's CD 8 (up 34 percent).
- Cliff Stearns' CD 6 (up 34 percent).
- John Mica's CD 7 (up 32 percent).
By contrast, Democrats represent four of the slowest-growing congressional districts:
- Debbie Wasserman Shultz's CD 20 (up 5 percent).
- Ted Deutch's CD 19 (up 9 percent).
- Alcee Hastings' CD 23 (up 14 percent).
- Corrine Brown's CD 3 (up 16 percent).
The statewide average growth in voter registration was 21 percent.
Some Republicans are sprinkled in among the slower-growing districts, including Bill Young's CD 10 (up 4 percent), Allen West's CD 22 (up 6 percent) and Vern Buchanan's CD 13 (up 12 percent).
But there were no Democratic congressmen among the state's 11 fastest-growing districts in terms of voter registration. Frederica Wilson was the only Democrat to represent a district that grew at a rate faster than the state average; her CD 17 posted a voter-registration increase of 22 percent, a single point above the average.
Equally encouraging for Republicans is the number of GOP districts bulging at the seams. In general, Republicans represent larger numbers of constituents, who could be divvied up to form new GOP districts.
The three districts with the most registered voters were Nugent's CD 5 (613,902 voters), Mica's CD 7 (530,939) and Stearns' CD 6 (508,343).
Tom Rooney (CD 16), Connie Mack (CD 14) and Bill Posey (CD 15) -- all Republicans -- were the only other congressmen representing more than 500,000 voters.
Aside from the favorable registration numbers, Republicans enjoy a crucial advantage in controlling the state's executive branch and both houses of the Legislature, which is tasked with the job of redistricting.
"I have little doubt that Republicans will pick up one or both of the new congressional seats that Florida will add in 2012," said Kenneth Quinnell of the Florida Progressive Coalition.
Quinnell said the GOP will prevail"because they control the redistricting process ... and because they have the ability to throw significantly more money into winning the seats than their opponents."
Quinnell also cited Republican efforts to "delay" the FairDistricts amendment, which proponents touted as a reform effort to quash partisan gerrymandering.
"[Republicans] have already shown a willingness to delay the implementation of FairDistricts as long as possible," Quinnell said.
"Demographic trends -- such as the growth of Florida's Puerto Rican population -- and registration trends strongly favor Democrats, so it's clear that there is something wrong with the current system," he said.
Randy Nielsen, a GOP strategist, points out that several districts with Democratic pluralities and growing Hispanic populations actually elected Republicans to Congress last year, including Dennis Ross in CD 12, Sandy Adams in CD 24 and Webster in CD 8.
"The Democrats have a hard road ahead," Nielsen said, particularly in the battleground of Central Florida. "There are not a lot of Democratic elected officials left" on the north side of the I-4 corridor, he observed.
With population growth stagnating in the southern Democratic strongholds of Broward and Pinellas counties, Nielsen predicted that Florida's two congressional seats could be located north of I-4.
Quinnell agreed that Democrats have their work cut out for them.
"The likelihood of Republicans picking up both seats greatly increases if Democrats don't learn from their mistakes in recent years and learn how to field more and better candidates, raise more money and come up with a stronger message that resonates with the voters," he said.
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Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 801-5341.
