Republicans are gaining on Democrats in Florida -- by the numbers, anyway. Which may not make the November election such an easy lift for Hillary Clinton.
But Republicans shouldn't celebrate quite yet. Read this story to the end.
Let's look.
In 2012 registered Democrats in the Sunshine State had a 557,544 voter advantage on Election Day. Yet, of more than 8.4 million votes cast, President Barack Obama only won the state by 74,309 votes.
Fast forward to 2016 and look what's happened: The GOP has added about 300,000 more voters than Democrats since 2012. Meaning, Clinton needs a lot of help from independents and disenchanted, crossover Republicans, because she has a smaller cushion than Obama had.
The state Division of Elections reports the Democratic edge is now about 259,000.
Some of this shift has been driven by changes in Florida's white electorate, political observers say. The Division of Elections reports Democrats lost almost 195,000 white voters since the 2012 election, while Republicans gained about 149,000 white voters.
All the news isn't bad for the Dems. They added 92,000 Hispanics to their voter rolls since 2012, and two-thirds of them were registered between February and August of this year -- presumably a reaction to candidates in the presidential race.
A Florida Democratic Party official told CNN three-quarters of all first-time voters registered since 2012 were non-white.
Professor Daniel Smith, who teaches political science at the University of Florida, also told CNN, "I don't look at this as being dire for Democrats. Their registration has been healthy, and their demographics are more representative of the state electorate. On the Republican side, it's disproportionately white."
In 2012, Democrats padded their lead by 102,000 voters in the fall. To replicate that, they could look to the 800,000 college students returning now to Florida schools. In fact, it's already begun.
Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine held a voter registration event Friday at Florida A&M University in Tallahassee. It marked the beginning of a big Democratic push to overwhelm the GOP in the Sunshine State General Election.
Reach Nancy Smith at nsmith@sunshinestatenews.com or at 228-282-2423. Twitter: @NancyLBSmith
