When the Republican Party of Florida's Presidency 4 summit rolled around four years ago, there was no straw poll and lots of internal tension.
This year's P5 -- set for Sept. 22-24 at the Orange County Convention Center -- is shaping up as a lively free-for-all hosted by a more unified, post-Charlie Crist party.
"Presidency 4 seems a very long time ago today. It was clear at the time that it was one of the first efforts by Jim Greer and Charlie Crist to manipulate the RPOF to serve their personal interests to the detriment of the party and our followers," recalled Al Cardenas, a former party chairman who now heads the American Conservative Union.
"The '07 event was underwhelming and set the tone for an underachieving election cycle for the GOP in Florida," Cardenas said.
"We were led by an incompetent chairman and an indifferent governor. That indifference translated to the mood of a state electorate which was clearly not motivated by either the standard bearer or our leadership."
Brett Doster, a GOP strategist who attended P4, said the tables have turned this year.
"The RPOF is very unified. We have a common objective and a committed, conservative leadership team."
So, has the ghost of Greer been fully exorcised?
"Completely," Doster says."Dave Bitner and the Republican Cabinet have restored faith in the organization. Rank-and-file Republicans trust their leadership and commitment to the cause."
Meantime, the arrival of the tea party movement -- which burst onto the scene after the 2008 elections -- brings a whole new dynamic to P5.
"From what I have been hearing, there are a lot of tea party members who were chosen to be delegates to P5," said Robin Stublen, a tea party leader from Charlotte County. Other counties report that top tea activists have entered local lotteries for delegate credentials.
"I believe it is going to have an impact on the outcome. There is no doubt going to be a strong showing for Ron Paul," Stublen said.
If so, that's a far cry from P4, when Rudy Giuliani was seen by many as winning the summit debate and John McCain's forces were able to quash a planned straw poll.
GAUGING THE PARTY'S CONSERVATIVE PULSE
As governor, with an ambitious eye toward a possible vice presidential slot on a 2008 McCain ticket, Crist was able to block P4's straw poll. At that time, Mitt Romney pushed for a poll in an effort to slow McCain's momentum.
This year, Romney, the presumptive front-runner, has technically bowed out of P5's straw poll. That leaves a diverse field of candidates jockeying for position in Florida -- and the poll will be one indicator of strength.
"A lot of people like Herman Cain and Michele Bachmann, and they will get their share of votes," Stublen predicted.
And like others in the tea party/patriot movement, Stublen reserves a healthy dose of skepticism about the conservative credentials of party operatives at P5.
"Let's face it, if everyone who attends were a conservative and voted for conservative candidates, Romney and Jon Huntsman would not have enough votes to field a football team on Sunday," he said.
"As we know, that is not the case. A lot of people are CINO -- Conservative In Name Only."
Doug Guetzloe, a former consultant to the breakaway Florida TEA (Taxed Enough Already) Party, believes that the generic tea movement has lost steam.
"The movement has declined dramatically. They showed no presence at the caucuses and they have no real numbers.A few got in by lottery, but they are leaderless," said Guetzloe, a lifelong Republican and a delegate to all five Presidency summits.
Doster disputes any notion that Florida Republicans' conservative credentials have gone wobbly.
"The party has always been conservative. Crist ran as a conservative and governed left of center. That is one big reason why he is no longer the titular head of the party," Doster said.
Noting that the tea party is "largely made up of Republicans who had felt disenfranchised by weak Republican leadership," Doster predicted, "they will be at P5 in force to try to hold Republicans accountable to their campaign promises."
BRINGING BACK THE STRAW POLL TO STIR EXCITEMENT
Whatever divisions may exist in the Republican Party, the driving, unifying force at P5 is four years under Barack Obama, says Karl Zimmermann, a state committeeman from Indian River County.
"He keeps inciting conservatives with his statements and vacillations. Just this week, he claimed that the Republicans in Congress are not looking to cut the budget enough. Amazing," Zimmermann said.
Zimmermann also speculates that Romney, who will be on hand for a Fox News debate on P5's opening night, will end up actively participating in the Saturday straw poll after all -- especially if his national poll numbers slip.
"I don't know if he will stay with that decisions [to skip the straw poll]. Florida has been receptive to him. I don't understand his attitude," he said.
Carole Jean Jordan, the former RPOF chairwoman who headed up P4, said the air went out of the 2007 event when Crist and Greer pulled the plug on that year's straw poll.
"When the incoming chairman [Greer] canceled the poll, it burst the bubble," Jordan said of the event held at the Rosen Shingle Creek Resort.
This year, Jordan expects P5 will be more like the lively gatherings at P1 and P3. "Grass-roots at its finest," she says.
One area where P5 may be underperforming is in online social networking, says Peter Schorsch, who edits and operates SaintPetersblog.com.
While calling P5 "a great event," Schorsch said the RPOF could do more to "build buzz" via the Internet.
"I would have had people using an online system to e-mail links to delegates and send messages to the presidential candidates," said the self-described "progressive blogger" who, some say, represents the "Democratic wing of the Republican Party."
"Tying in to Facebook and Twitter is just one of 100 things they could do," Schorsch said of RPOF's P5 organizers. "This is a fundraising event at its core," said Schorsch, whose web-services proposal to RPOF was not accepted.
Harris Media, which is hosting the P5 home page, declined to comment.
Cardenas, whose Alexandria, Va.-based ACU will host an inaugural (and independent) Florida CPAC event during P5, said the state party's leadership "is setting a very different tone for 2012."
"There is a sense of urgency in changing the course America is on and defeating the president. The grass roots are energized."
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Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or (772) 559-4719.
