State economic forecasters predicted Friday that without additional appropriations, Floridas Medicaid program could begin running a deficit as soon as the 2011-2012 fiscal year.
The program will run a deficit of more than $2 billion, according to the state Office of Economic and Demographic Research. The EDR and the Agency for Health Care Administration agreed in principle Friday to their forecasts for Medicaid expenditures during the next fiscal year. The official numbers set to be released Monday could raise the expected shortfall to $2.4 billion.
Health care inflation, increased workload and adjustments to the federal contribution to Medicaid account for the increase in the forecast, EDR coordinator Amy Baker said.
The caseload is going up, part of it is being driven by that. Health care costs, at least by the clients being serviced by this program, are increasing, Baker said.
State legislators have targeted Medicaid reform as a high priority on their upcoming legislative agenda, but they are also in the midst of financial triage, attempting to curtail the likely $3.5 billion budget shortfall this year.
Legislators are eyeing cuts throughout the budget, but reforming Medicaid could be the key to setting Florida back toward the black for the long-term.
Senate President Mike Haridopolos, R-Merritt Island, lists Medicaid reform as one of his top priorities, but said Wednesday he will work with Gov.-elect Rick Scotts incoming administration and House Speaker Dean Cannon, R-Winter Park. He also said he would keep his promise not to increase any taxes; therefore, he will seek to make up the deficit solely through spending cuts.
Its unclear what any potential Medicaid reform legislation will look like at this point, but Sen. Joe Negron, R-Stuart, chairman of the Health and Human Services Appropriations Subcommittee, indicated his preference Tuesday to give recipients more control and responsibility over their benefits. Negron believes this will result in wiser, cheaper health care choices that save the state money in turn.
Like the (Senate) president said, were not going to continue to kick the can down the road, Negron said.
Even with Scott's support, the extent to which the heavily Republican-dominated Legislature is able to transform Medicaid may depend on the federal government. Legislators have consistently sought greater flexibility in running Medicaid, and Florida is currently seeking a waiver to extend a pilot program that enrolls some beneficiaries in managed-care plans.
Cooperation from the federal government, however, may not be forthcoming. Florida is currently leading a lawsuit joined by several states to overturn the Affordable Care Act, the federal health care overhaul, and legislators are currently pursuing an amendment to the state Constitution that would allow Floridians to opt out of the law. The Florida House and Senate also passed a nonbinding resolution last month, stating their desire to reform Medicaid, but also their desire for greater autonomy from the government in running the program.
Reach Gray Rohrer at grohrer@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
