With the Florida Legislature returning to Tallahassee next week to start a special session on congressional redistricting, the base map of the state’s 27 congressional districts was released on Wednesday.
Last month, the Florida Supreme Court ruled that the current congressional districts failed to meet constitutional muster after voters passed two amendments on the redistricting process in 2010. On Wednesday, legislative staff brought out the base map for the congressional districts. While not the final map, legislators will be using the base map as the foundation process for new districts.
Here’s a look at the base map and how it impacts the Florida congressional delegation.
CD 1: Currently held by U.S. Rep. Jeff Miller, R-Fla., this Panhandle district currently covers all of Escambia and Santa Rosa counties and parts of Holmes, Okaloosa and Walton counties. Ranked as one of the most Republican districts in the nation, CD 1, under the base map, would include all of Escambia, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa and Walton counties and most of the population of Holmes County.
CD 2: The seat currently held by U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham, D-Fla. is set for some major changes. The district sprawls across the Big Bend taking in all of Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Jackson, Jefferson, Leon, Liberty, Taylor, Wakulla and Washington counties and parts of Holmes and Madison counties. Under the base map, CD 2 would bring in all of Bay, Calhoun, Dixie, Franklin, Gilchrist, Gulf, Jackson, Lafayette, Levy, Liberty, Suwannee, Taylor, Wakulla, and Washington counties, less than half of the population of Leon County, most of Columbia County and fractions of the populations of Marion and Jefferson counties. This seat becomes harder for a Democrat to keep, especially with Leon County divided. If the base map goes through. Graham might have to set her eyes on another seat -- namely CD 5.
CD 3: U.S. Rep. Ted Yoho, R-Fla., will be facing a less rural district if the base map holds. Yoho currently represents all of Bradford, Columbia, Dixie, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Lafayette, Levy, Suwannee, and Union counties, along with most of Alachua and Clay counties, part of Madison County and a slice of Marion County. Under the base map, this district would pull all of Alachua, Bradford, Clay, Putnam and Union counties while keeping a part of Marion County. Democrats will have better chances here, especially with Alachua County -- more blue due to the University of Florida’s population -- united here.
CD 4: U.S. Rep. Ander Crenshaw, R-Fla., currently represents all of Baker and Nassau counties and parts of Duval County in Congress. Under the base map, Crenshaw keeps Nassau County while losing Baker County and represents more than half the population of Duval County, keeping most of his Jacksonville base. But CD 4 now goes further south, taking in most of St. Johns County. With a number of Republicans running for the seat U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis, R-Fla., is giving up to run for the U.S. Senate based in St. Johns County, the base map could change their plans drastically.
CD 5: This district, currently represented in Washington, D.C., by U.S. Rep. Corrine Brown, D-Fla., will drastically change if the base map goes through. Brown’s district currently winds through North Florida to the central part of the state, taking in parts of Alachua, Clay, Duval, Lake, Marion, Orange, Putnam, Seminole and Volusia counties, making it a very secure seat for Democrats. But the seat in the base map is far less secure, heading west from Brown’s Jacksonville base, taking in all of Baker, Gadsden, Hamilton and Madison counties, most of Jefferson and Leon counties and almost half of Duval County. This becomes a far more competitive seat if the base map goes through, but Democrats could still have the edge here. This could set up a showdown between Graham and Brown with former Florida Senate Minority Leader Al Lawson, who ran for Congress in 2010 and 2012, at least looking at the race.
CD 6: This seat currently stretches from the Jacksonville suburbs down to Daytona Beach. DeSantis is not running for a third term and the district loses his base, the northern part of St. Johns County, under the base map. All of Flagler and Volusia counties and parts of Lake and St. Johns counties would be included here under the base map. This map shapes up nicely for some of the Republicans running for the current seat, including former U.S. Rep. Sandy Adams, R-Fla.
CD 7: This suburban Orlando seat is currently held by U.S. Rep. John Mica, R-Fla. The base map brings in parts of Orange County but Mica’s Seminole Count hometurf, all of which is included, is the heart of the proposed district. Mica has to like his chances to stay in Congress if the base map goes through.
CD 8: U.S. Rep. Bill Posey, R-Fla., currently represents all of Brevard and Indian River counties and parts of Orange County. The base map keeps all of Brevard and Indian River counties and a small slice of Orange County. Posey has to be thrilled with how the base map treats his district.
CD 9: With U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson, D-Fla., running for the Senate, Democrats should be able to hold here if the base map goes through. The district currently contains most of Osceola County along with smaller parts of Orange and Polk counties. The base map has all of Osceloa County here and keeps parts of Polk and Orange counties.
CD 10: Democrats almost knocked off U.S. Rep. Dan Webster, R-Fla., in 2012 and their chances improve considerably if the base map goes through. Webster represents parts of Orange and Polk counties and most of Lake County. Under the base map, this district would be far more Democratic, taking in only parts of Orange County.
CD 11: Starting in Ocala and sprawling over to the Gulf Coast, this district winds through Citrus, Hernando, Marion and Sumter counties. Under the base map, the district keeps all of Citrus, Hernando and Sumter counties as well as part of Marion County while adding almost half of the population of Lake County. U.S. Rep. Rich Nugent, R-Fla., will have to introduce himself to these new voters but he should be secure here.
CD 12: U.S. Rep. Gus Bilirakis, R-Fla., will feel right at home if the base map goes through. He gets to keep representing all of Pasco County and parts of Pinellas and Hillsborough counties in the Tampa Bay area.
CD 13: Former Gov. Charlie Crist has to be thrilled with the base map even as U.S. Rep. David Jolly, R-Fla., is running for the U.S. Senate. This Pinellas County seat, now including all of St. Petersburg, would be far more Democratic leaning under the base map. Crist has already said he would run and the base map certainly goes his way.
CD 14: U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor, D-Fla., currently represents parts of Hillsborough and Pinellas counties in this secure Democratic district. Under the base map, she loses Pinellas County but this seat should lean for the Democrats if the proposed map goes through.
CD 15: This district currently takes in the suburbs east of Tampa in Hillsborough and Polk counties. Under the base map, U.S. Rep. Dennis Ross, R-Fla., would not see a major change in his district though a quarter of the voters based in Lake County would be added to the district. That should lead to no major changes in what is generally a secure district for Republicans.
CD 16: Nestled south of Tampa Bay, this district takes in most of Manatee and Sarasota counties. Under the base map, most of Sarasota County and all of Manatee County would stay here while a fraction of Hillsborough County would be added to the district. U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, R-Fla., should be pleased with the base map despite the new addition.
CD 17: This large district, which sprawls across the southern half of the state, would see some nominal changes under the base map. Parts of Lee, Polk and Sarasota join all of Charlotte, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Highlands and Okeechobee counties in the proposal. If the base map goes through, U.S Rep. Tom Rooney, R-Fla., should have nothing to worry about.
CD 18: U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy, D-Fla., is running for the Senate, leaving this swing seat open. The seat under the base map keeps all of Martin and St. Lucie counties and part of of Palm Beach County in it. Under the base map, both the Democrats and Republicans can expect competitive primaries next year.
CD 19: This Southwest Florida district, generally a citadel for the GOP, won’t see major changes if the base map goes through. Almost half of Collier and most of Lee counties are included in the proposed map. That’s music to the ears of U.S. Rep. Curt Clawson, R-Fla., who shouldn’t have much difficulty keeping this seat.
CD 20: The basemap offers some changes to this seat, currently held by U.S. Rep. Alcee Hastings, D-Fla. Under the map, Hastings loses his share of Hendry County. Hastings would keep parts of Broward and Palm Beach counties under the proposal.
CD 21: U.S. Rep. Ted Deutch, D-Fla., has company under the base map. Joining him in this Palm Beach County district is U.S. Rep. Lois Frankel, D-Fla., as the maps shift. That would be an interesting primary even as there is now an open seat to the south. If the base map goes through, look for one of these congressional incumbents to blink and head south.
CD 22: Now longer running side by side with Deutch’s district, this seat, under the base map, takes in the southern part of Palm Beach County and parts of Broward County. This will be a strong seat for Democrats if the base map goes through.
CD 23: This South Florida district currently runs between the border of Broward and Miami-Dade counties. Under the base map, Broward would still outweigh Miami-Dade in this secure district for the Democrats. All of that is good news for U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Fla.
CD 24: U.S. Rep. Frederica Wilson, D-Fla., represents part of Broward and Miami-Dade counties in Congress. The base map doesn’t particuarly shake things up even as some of the boundaries with CD 23 and other districts are changed.
CD 25:U.S. Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, R-Fla., picks up the part of Hendry County that Hastings lost under the base map. Under the base map, Diaz-Balart’s seat would continue to include a sliver of Broward County, more than half the voters in Collier County and around a fifth of voters in Miami-Dade County.
CD 26: U.S. Rep. Carlos Curbelo, R-Fla., already a top target for Democrats in 2016, will be sweating it out if the base map goes through. Curbelo holds a swing district containing all of Monroe County and parts of Miami-Dade. But the base map brings all of Homestead, where Democrats do well, in this district while leaving Republican-leaning areas outside of it. Democrats already are high on former Miami-Dade Democratic Party Chairwoman Annette Taddeo’s chances. If the base map goes through, they have more reasons to be optimistic.
CD 27: U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fla., presides in this South Florida district and the base map breaks her way. If the base map goes through, Ros-Lehtinen, already one of the most secure members of the Florida delegation, should be able to keep this secure GOP seat with ease.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
