In the first leg of a political trifecta, Florida Republicans will conduct a straw poll that could determine the 2012 presidential race.
Some 3,500 state delegates will convene for "Presidency 5" in Orlando to hear the crowded field of GOP contenders debate and to cast the nation's first significant straw ballots Sept. 22-24.
Hosted by the Republican Party of Florida, the previous four Presidency summits have set the tone for GOP presidential campaigns.
This year's "P5" comes with particularly high stakes, as the Republican field is both large and amorphous, with no clear front-runner.
And the event prepares the stage for two more big events in Florida: the state's presidential primary and the Republican National Convention in Tampa.
"The P5 straw poll, early primary and convention could be the trifecta for Florida's Republican voters signifying its importance as the most coveted Republican purple state in the country," said Brett Doster, a Tallahassee-based political consultant.
In ongoing negotiations with the national party, RPOF officials want Florida to be the first large state to hold a 2012 primary. Officials are seeking a timetable that would slot the Sunshine State immediately after scheduled dates in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina -- and ahead of Super Tuesday (March 6), when several states, including New York, are due to vote.
Whichever way the primary calendar works out, Florida will get a jump on the presidential action when P5 convenes at the Orange County Convention Center more than four months before the Iowa caucuses.
All big-name GOP presidential aspirants are expected to attend, as they have for Florida's four previous Presidency polls. Fox News will sponsor a debate on Thursday, Sept. 22, and delegates will cast their straw ballots the following Saturday.
The selection of delegates is designed to represent an accurate cross-section of Republican voters from across the state.
According to the party's rules, applicants must register online at www.Presidency5.com. Only applications received online will be considered, with registration open until June 10.
All delegates must be Florida residents and have been registered Republicans as of Feb. 1, 2011.
Seventy-five percent of the 3,500 delegates will be selected at random via lottery at each county. The remaining 25 percent will be chosen by Republican Executive Committee leaders in each of the state's 67 counties.
The delegates must caucus with the county delegation in the county in which they are registered to vote as of their P5 application. Counties are apportioned a specific number of delegates based on their party registration.
The county delegate selection caucuses will take place between June 15 and Aug. 1, 2011.
Trey Stapleton, spokesman for the RPOF, said the early flow of online applications indicates that the party is well on its way to filling its delegate seats. Each delegate must pay a $175 fee.
Since the P4 summit in 2008 -- when the party scratched its planned presidential poll -- the tea party movement has burst onto the scene, and its activists figure to play a role at P5.
Though relations between tea partiers and GOP brass haven't always been harmonious, the random selection process for choosing three-quarters of the P5 delegates gives Republican-registered tea activists an entree into September's straw poll.
Marianne Moran said she and "a lot" of members of her Tea Party in Action group plan to vie for seats in Orlando.
"I think it's a good way to get more conservative, more principled Republicans involved," said Moran, who is based in West Palm Beach.
Heavier involvement by such activists could boost polling of tea favorites like libertarian-leaning Rep. Ron Paul, who recently announced formation of a committee to explore another presidential bid in 2012.
"You don't have a clique that can control the process," noted Randy Nielsen, a South Florida-based political consultant. "This is great for the state, and it's a dramatically better cross section than Iowa."
Nielsen, who has attended past Presidency gatherings, said it would be "foolish" for serious GOP hopefuls to miss this year's event.
But he noted that they shouldn't expect even-handed or serious coverage from media outlets that have fawned over President Barack Obama for four years.
"It's kind of like a 'Conservapalooza,'" Nielsen said of P5. "The mainstream media will look for circus acts, zeroing in on delegates wearing the weirdest outfits."
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Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or (772) 801-5341.
