Florida looks like prime real estate for 2016 presidential candidates as they pitch in to help Republicans and Democrats in Novembers elections.
In the final days of the 2014 election cycle, the headlines are full of candidates looking at 2016 getting active in Florida. Bill and Hillary Clinton both came down to Florida to help Charlie Crist and other Democrats. So have other potential Democratic presidential candidates like Joe Biden, Martin OMalley and Deval Patrick.
Things are just as busy on the Republican side. Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush have cut ads and have campaigned alongside Rick Scott. Chris Christie has been almost attached to Scott on the campaign trail this month. Paul Ryan jetted down to Florida at the end of last week to fundraise for Vern Buchanan, David Jolly and Jeff Miller, none of whom are even remotely in a competitive congressional contest. The likes of Rubio and Rand Paul even recorded robocalls to help out Carl Domino who is, at best, a longshot to beat Patrick Murphy.
There are, of course, some races in Florida with national implications. The gubernatorial contest has big implications for 2016 when Florida will, once again, be the most important swing state in the presidential election. Gwen Grahams campaign against Steve Southerland might be the Democrats best opportunity to pick up a congressional seat from the GOP. If he beats Joe Garcia in South Florida, Carlos Curbelo could be a young Hispanic star for the Republicans.
Besides its role in the general election, Florida will have a major say in determining who the presidential candidates will be, especially on the Republican side. Even with favorite sons like Bush and Rubio in the mix, Republican presidential possibilities like Christie, Paul and Ryan can mine the Sunshine State for dollars and support. They can also place their bets if conservative discontent against Bush and Rubio leads to them bowing out of the contest after Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina have their say. Even if Bush or Rubio survive the early contests and get to Florida, someone like Paul or Christie could force them to play defense in Florida, perhaps mortally wounding their campaigns or, at the very least, making them spend time and resources to protect their home turf.
On the Democratic side, things are a bit simpler as Hillary Clinton is far ahead of her primary rivals. But that was the case in 2008 when Obama outflanked her left and beat her in the primaries. So far, the Clintons appear not to be taking any chances in Florida. Besides helping Crist, Murphy and Graham this weekend, Bill Clinton even did a photo-op with George Sheldon,a dark horse to beat out Pam Bondi next week.
With a lot riding on Florida in the primaries and the general election, expect to see more of the possible presidential candidates in the Sunshine State over the coming months. Once the smoke clears in next weeks election, expect the 2016 presidential race to quickly start in Florida.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
