The race in South Florida's swampy 26th Congressional District is shaping up to be as lively and lethal as an alligator fight.
Incumbent Rep. David Rivera, R-Miami, appears to have a clear path to November -- but rumblings persist that a primary challenger could emerge, or that a tea party protest candidate could run to Rivera's right in the general election.
On the Democratic side, state Rep. Luis Garcia has been an announced candidate since July -- but a falling out with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee could bring a primary face-off with former Miami-Dade County Mayor Alex Penelas.
Rivera, a freshman congressman, says he's focusing on his job on Capitol Hill. His campaign released this matter-of-fact statement: "Once the redistricting process has concluded, there will be more than enough time this fall to deal with campaigns and politics."
Sean Foreman, political science professor at Barry University in Miami Lakes, said Rivera has good reason to be confident.
"I'm not seeing a [Republican] challenge to Rivera. Someone would have to be brave to take him on.
"For all his flaws, and the cloud of investigation hanging over his head, he's a really good campaigner. He can be ruthless to his opponents. A scorched-earth primary race with an incumbent is not a smart move," Foreman said.
But Roger Stone, a Republican consultant based in Miami Beach, doesn't rule out the possibility of a primary blood-letting.
"David Rivera is still likely to face a GOP primary from an untainted challenger," Stone predicted.
Though no names are officially in play, Eric Von Tausch, of Tea Party Miami, said, "We will encourage a primary challenger or an independent conservative in the fall.
"Integrity and honesty are important to the tea party, and Rivera's finances are an issue for our members."
Rivera, who is reportedly under state and federal investigation over a secret $500,000 dog-track payment, maintains he has done nothing wrong.
Touting his congressional record, Rivera's campaign said he was "pleased he was able to play a leading role in advocating for passage of the Colombian Free Trade Agreement" and dedicated to "issues that matter to his constituents, particularly jobs and the economy."
Democrat Luis Garcia -- who has never lost an election -- believes that Rivera can be beaten in the GOP-leaning district that encompasses Key West, much of the southern Everglades and eastern Collier County.
The three-term state representative, former Miami Beach mayor and ex-fire chief said he was recruited by the DCCC.
Though he raised $100,000 in the first quarter after announcing his candidacy, Garcia expressed frustration with what he considers dismissive treatment from the DCCC since then.
"The DCCC's idea of a successful candidate is to lock yourself in a room and dial for dollars," he said.
Declining to discuss names on the record, DCCC regional press secretary Stephanie Formas said, "As with all races across the country, the DCCC will reach out to and talk with all interested candidates."
For now, Formas said, the committee "is focused on defeating an ethically challenged" Rivera.
Despite rumblings that Penelas might enter the race, Garcia says his campaign is on "a positive trajectory."
"Our endorsement by the Hispanic Congressional Caucus means more than the DCCC," said Garcia, who freely acknowledges an "independent streak."
"I'll vote for a good Republican idea," said the lone Cuban Democrat in the Florida Legislature.
If Penelas opts to run -- he says he hasn't decided -- Foreman predicts he could be a formidable campaigner. But the political science professor notes that Penelas comes with political baggage.
"He campaigned for a penny sales tax increase for transit projects and promised improvements that never came. There was massive fraud and corruption," said Foreman, adding that Penelas was not personally implicated.
Penelas also may have burned some bridges with Democratic loyalists.
"He didn't help Al Gore when he left the country at the time of the [2000] election. He said the county wasn't going to protect the streets or be responsible for violence that occurred in response to [Attorney General Janet Reno's ordered seizure of] Elian Gonzalez," Foreman added.
"I don't see Penelas beating Rivera," Foreman concluded.
And Garcia doesn't see Penelas winning a Democratic primary either.
"Penelas might have more money, but I have the unions and grassroots support. If he runs, let's rock," Garcia said.
Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 801-5341.
