A "no-bailout tour" by the head of the state Department of Transportation next week is expected to highlight the bleak, and increasingly scary, financials of the planned SunRail project.
FDOT Secretary Ananth Prasad will tell officials in Volusia, Seminole, Orange and Osceola counties that there will be no state bailout if they run short of money operating the proposed 61-mile commuter train.
Opponents of the controversial line say Prasad's warning understates what's at stake, and they plan to ramp up protests on Tuesday.
"Finger-wagging by FDOT is not binding. The Full Funding Grant Agreement between the feds and the state is binding," said Beth Dillaha, former city commissioner in Winter Park and leader of Veto SunRail.
"The state is responsible for Central Florida's cost overruns and/or default on the terms of FFGA," she said.
Gov. Rick Scott has said he will announce his decision on the project by July 2. He is under intense pressure from Central Florida legislators and local officials to green-light the train, and some suspect Prasad's visit signals that the governor may have no legal authority to undo agreements previously approved by the Legislature.
SunRail's supporters claim that the commuter rail line will generate nearly 10,000 jobs "almost immediately" and create more than $8 billion in economic impact over 25 years.
Orlando's Downtown Development Board even went so far as to say SunRail will combat terrorism.
"Oil threatens the safety of all Americans as our oil addiction helps feed the coffers of terrorist organizations bent on killing U.S. citizens," the board declared.
But skeptics say Scott, who turned down $2.4 billion in federal stimulus funds earmarked for a high-speed line between Orlando and Tampa, has every reason to reject SunRail.
State Sen. Paula Dockery, R-Lakeland, says SunRail's price tag has already ballooned, pointing to an FDOT document that pegs the 30-year costs at $2.66 billion. That's double the initially advertised figure of $1.3 billion, of which the federal government agreed to pay half.
"Volusia and Orlando already borrowed money for SunRail prior to the project ever being approved. No wonder they are so committed to, and almost irrational about, SunRail," Dillaha said.
"It should be concerning that the local governments dont have the funds to even get the project started without borrowing," she added.
Betting on the come, Volusia County commissioners borrowed $6.6 million for advance work on a train station.
Prasad told the Orlando Sentinel that by 2021-22, Orange, Seminole, Osceola and Volusia counties, along with the cities of Orlando, Maitland and Winter Park, will be expected to collectively spend nearly $1.9 million annually to underwrite SunRail's daily expenses.
Prasad said the cost meter will shift from the state to the participating local agencies seven years after the train's inaugural trip.
SunRail will not get a bailout if it goes into the red," the FDOT chief said.
Critics predict that the red ink will flow on SunRail -- as it has on South Florida's Tri-Rail system -- and they say Prasad's numbers don't begin to account for the tab faced by state and local taxpayers.
According to the funding agreement with Washington, all cost overruns would be the responsibility of the state. If Florida defaulted on any terms of the deal, the state would be liable for the entire amount -- whether the rail line was built or not.
"Every cent of the likely cost overruns will be on a blank check drawn on the account of Florida taxpayers," said Wendell Cox, a national transportation expert.
SunRail proponents say state and local investment is needed to address the daily gridlock along the Interstate 4 corridor through Orlando. They estimate that the train will transport the equivalent of one lane of freeway traffic.
Yet Cox's analysis indicates that even if SunRail reached its ridership projections it would take a full day of train travel to remove less than an hour's peak freeway volume.
"Needless to say, no one will notice any fewer cars on the freeway," he said.
One lane on I-4 carries more than 3,000 people per hour. SunRail is projected to serve just 1,850 new roundtrip commuters per day -- by 2030. And that train ridership forecast by the Federal Transit Administration may be optimistic.
In general, Brookings Institution economist Clifford Wilson said, "The costs of building rail systems are notorious for exceeding expectations, while ridership levels tend to be much lower than anticipated."
However bleak the numbers, SunRail remains alluring for elected officials eager to appear "progressive" and anxious to make their mark for posterity.
"These politicians will not be around in seven years," Dillaha says.
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Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 801-5341.
