In an election whose coverage, for months, has shone a spotlight almost exclusively on Democratic-rich South Florida or the always-important I-4 corridor, its one little-noted part of the state that will have insiders eyes on it as the clock strikes 7 p.m. EST and the polls close in almost, but not all, of Florida.
In a quiet strip of Northwest Florida live some of the most conservative voters in the state. Hugging parts of the roughly 200 miles of the Florida Panhandle are the deep-crimson states of Alabama and Georgia, influencing both the manner of speech and social values in counties like Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Bay and Escambia. Those four counties, the largest in the area, collectively saw 260,000 ballots cast in the 2010 governors race. Gov. Rick Scott raked in 65 percent of those votes.
What does that mean for Tuesday and who will be the next governor of the Sunshine State?
In a race that is expected to come down to the wire, when the polls close in Eastern time, campaign experts say they will have a fairly good idea of how the race will break.
If Republican-turned-Independent-turned-Democrat Charlie Crist is behind after the first wave of votes, it will be nearly impossible for him to make up the difference. The Eastern time vote count, especially liberal South Florida, is where the former governor needs to drive up his numbers.
Conversely, if Gov. Rick Scott is behind when the first set of polls close, itll all come down to margins. Based on 2010 modeling, the numbers show the current governor could make up a difference of as many as 75,000 votes in the four biggest of the Panhandle's nearly 20 counties.
As the candidates, campaigners and pundits alike have laboriously stressed all season: it all comes down to turnout. For voters, that means your phone could keep ringing until the polls close.
In the most uncertain of elections, one thing is for sure: all eyes will be on the clock this Election Day.
Reach Nancy Smith at nsmith@sunshinestatenews.com or at 228-282-2423. Twitter: @NancyLBSmith
