With less than two weeks to go until the Florida primary, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio has his work cut out to win his home state against businessman Donald Trump, the favorite for the Republican presidential nomination, a new poll shows.
Quinnipiac University released a survey Thursday which has Trump out front with 44 percent of likely Republican primary voters, with Floridian Rubio taking 28 percent. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, pulls 12 percent while Gov. John Kasich, R-Ohio, gets 7 percent and Dr. Ben Carson 4 percent.
A quarter of Florida Republicans -- 26 percent -- say they can’t back Cruz for the nomination while 21 percent say the same thing of Trump. Seventeen percent say that about Rubio.
Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, said there will be much on the line in Florida in the March 15 primary, especially for Rubio.
"Florida is the single biggest prize of the primary season because it is the largest state to allocate its delegates on a winner-take-all basis,” Brown said. “If Sen. Rubio can't win in his own home state, it is difficult to see how he can win elsewhere."
Brown did note Trump could have some vulnerability in Florida despite his solid lead in the poll.
"Florida election law makes this contest more uncertain than earlier primaries,” Brown noted. “Only registered Republicans may vote here, which raises the question of whether the flood of new voters Donald Trump seemed to bring to earlier contests will be able to participate in Florida."
More than two-thirds of those surveyed -- 69 percent -- say they have made up their mind about who they will support and that includes 73 percent of Trump supporters, 67 percent of Rubio backers and 68 percent of Cruz voters. However, 30 percent of those surveyed say they could change their mind in the final days before the primary.
Trump leads with both men and women, taking 49 percent of men and 39 percent of women. Rubio pulls 31 percent of women and 25 percent of men. Trump also leads among tea party voters, Republicans who identify as “very” or “somewhat” conservative and even with self-identified moderates and liberals.
"The size and shape of Trump's lead is impressive," Brown said. “He leads in every age group by 9 to 19 percentage points. He does better among men than among women and, despite being a New York multi-billionaire, he leads among those who identify with the tea party. He also does twice as well among white evangelicals as does Sen. Ted Cruz, who is trying to make this group his core constituency.”
Almost a third of Florida Republicans -- 31 percent -- think the economy and jobs are the top issue, while 18 percent think terrorism is and 14 percent say it is immigration.
Half of those -- 51 percent -- who identify the economy and jobs as the most important issue back Trump, while Rubio gets 28 percent of these voters and 12 percent are for Cruz. Rubio does better on voters whose main priority is terrorism; but even there he gets 34 percent of voters while 44 percent back Trump. Florida Republicans who say immigration is the most important issue overwhelmingly break to Trump as he pulls 66 percent of them while 12 percent say Rubio and the same percentage back Cruz.
A third of Florida Republicans -- 32 percent -- say the most important trait of their nominee is to be a strong leader while 23 percent say it is being honest and trustworthy. Twenty percent insist it is sharing their values.
That helps Trump, Brown noted. "A third of likely primary voters say a candidate who is a strong leader is key to their choice and 66 percent of them support Trump," Brown said.
Republicans who say it’s most important for their nominee to be a strong leader also break overwhelmingly to Trump with 66 percent backing him while 16 percent prefer Rubio and the rest of the candidates are in single digits here. Rubio runs even with Trump with voters who say it’s more important for their nominee to be honest and trustworthy and runs ahead of him with voters who say it’s more important for a candidate who shares their values. Rubio has a clear edge with Republicans who say the most important trait their candidate can have is being able to win in November, with 54 percent of these voters going for the Florida Republican while 28 percent of them prefer Trump.
The poll of 705 likely Florida Republican primary voters was taken from Feb. 21-Feb. 23 and had a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
