A Democrat's upset victory in Jacksonville's mayoral election was trumpeted as a major blow to Republicans and a repudiation of Gov. Rick Scott in particular.
According to the story line touted by Democratic activists and amplified by Florida's mainstream media last week, Alvin Brown's election confirmed that Scott is the "kiss of death" to the GOP's electoral prospects.
In fact, Scott barely spent a day in Jacksonville during the campaign, and neither he nor his policies were a subject of debate in the mayoral runoff that pitted the Democrat Brown against Republican Mike Hogan.
If there's blame to be laid, it could be directed at a Republican Party machine that appeared to be on cruise control and a GOP candidate who failed to inspire voters. But credit, not blame, is the key to understanding what happened in Jacksonville last week.
Though Hogan finished first in the primary, the momentum shifted decidedly toward Brown in the runoff. That coincided with a massive influx of Democratic Party resources and money from out of state.
Sensing an opportunity to turn a historically red city a least partly blue, Democrats including Al Gore, Bill Clinton and U.S. Rep. Corrine Brown weighed in for Brown. Candidate Brown (no relation to the congresswoman) had formerly worked in the Clinton administration and was the beneficiary of nearly $1 million in state party and DNC campaign cash.
Organizing for America, President Barack Obama's campaign organization, reportedly got involved, too, in a further effort to nationalize the local election.
While doling out money, the Democratic Party shipped in hundreds of campaign workers and fed voters at backyard barbecues. Then it bused voters to the polls. Beating Republicans at their own game, Democrats even inundated the supervisor of elections with thousands of absentee ballots.
Meantime, Hogan and the GOP machine mechanically cranked out robo-calls, e-mails and fliers. The campaign's static website appeared to be on auto-pilot.
"Local campaigns are always about what's happening there," said Rick Wilson, a GOP consultant who worked on New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani's re-election bid in 1997. For Hogan, it seemed there was no 'there' there.
Democrats cleverly -- if not disingenuously -- portrayed Hogan as a "good ol' boy" who had been in local government too long. The underlying message hinted at big-city corruption, though Hogan has never been associated with a whiff of controversy.
But the real damage appeared to be self-inflicted when Republicans simply failed to turn out to vote. Supporters of Audrey Moran, a left-of-center Republican, were clearly disheartened when she was edged out by Brown for a runoff spot. Low GOP turnout suggested that Moran voters either stayed home last Tuesday, or flipped to Brown.
Hogan appeared to have underperformed in the county club Republican enclaves of San Marco, Riverside, Ortega and Avondale
"It was the apathetic [Republican] voters," said Lynne Holicky, director of policy for the First Coast Tea Party. "How's that Rick Scott's fault?"
By contrast, Democrats -- especially black Democrats -- were highly motivated. With an African-American on the ballot, black precincts recorded large turnouts. At one urban polling place, Brown reportedly garnered more than 1,200 votes versus just 13 for Hogan.
With blacks accounting for one of every three voters in the city, and more than 90 percent of those votes going to Brown, Hogan was swamped by the high African-American turnout.
"Alvin owes his election to Corrine Brown," said state Rep. Mike Weinstein, R-Jacksonville. "She's a street campaigner. She was very helpful at getting him in the runoff and in the mayor's seat."
Whether the Democrats' victory represents a sea change or an anomaly remains to be seen.
"We [Republicans] face more challenges. Northeast Florida and Duval will remain a conservative, Republican area, but not as easily," Weinstein predicted.
Brown who marketed himself as a "conservative Democrat," will have the opportunity to make good on that claim. But whatever happens in the future, Democrats scored at least a symbolic victory, and perhaps gain a strategic beachhead.
Jacksonville will be a key Florida battleground in the 2012 presidential and U.S. Senate election, and a Democratic mayor can marshal political organization.
"[Brown's election] makes it much easier to raise money in Jacksonville," Weinstein said. "Until this race, we had a pretty dormant, reserved Democratic Party in Duval. This is a big change in the political environment."
In the aftermath, embittered Republicans may be tempted to engage in a circular firing squad or, as the Florida Times-Union curiously suggested, blame tea partiers. But the bottom line was that Democrats, who hold a slight edge in party registration, got their voters to the polls and the GOP did not.
The Democrats owe their victory to the time-honored combination of cash and boots on the ground. On those counts, Hogan and the GOP were badly outgunned, if not MIA.
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Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 801-5341.
