The Florida congressional district is set to radically change after the November elections. Between redistricting, some unexpected retirements and two representatives running for the U.S. Senate, almost half of the Sunshine State’s 27 congressional seats are in play in the primaries or the general election. With that many seats up for grabs, Florida can expect some differences in how it's represented starting in 2017.
North Florida shouldn’t see much in the way of competitive congressional races come November even after redistricting. But there are a number of interesting primaries in this part of the Sunshine State as representatives representing this area step down.
Here's a look at where some of the congressional races in North Florida stand after qualifying ended on Friday:
CD1: With Republican Jeff Miller bowing out, expect a competitive GOP in this Panhandle seat. Two state legislators--Greg Evers and Matt Gaetz--are running for this seat and other Republicans have also lined up to run. No surprise considering the number of military bases in the region, several of the Republican candidates-Cris Dosev, Brian Frazier, James Zumwalt--are veterans. There are also other outsiders like Rebekah Johansen Bydlak, Gary Fairchild and Mark Wichern in the primary. This isn’t going to be a simple two man contest between Evers and Gaetz and one of the dark horses can make a splash here. Whoever wins the Republican primary will be in good shape in November though Democrats have a candidate in newly minted attorney Steven Specht, a veteran of the Air Force.
CD 2: This North Florida seat offers Republicans a prime opportunity to flip a seat currently held by the Democrats as Gwen Graham is headed to the sidelines after a single term. There’s an interesting three candidate Republican primary shaping up. Dr. Neal Dunn, Ken Sukhia and Mary Thomas are all serious candidates. Businessman Jeff Moran bowed out last week and threw his support to Sukhia. All three of the candidates are trying to find their niches and defended their bases. Already the attacks are flying and the stakes will only get higher in the two months until the primary. Two Democrats are in the mix here as attorney and Marines veteran Walter Dartland and dark horse Steve Crapps look to keep the seat blue. Libertarian Rob Lapham is also running. Antoine Roberts is running as a write in candidate. Regardless of which Republican emerges in the primary, the GOP should be able to pick up this seat which was changed drastically by redistricting in its favor.
CD 3: Republican Ted Yoho is running for a third term in North Florida. Yoho will be a heavy favorite in November when he faces businessman Ken McGurn who is running on the Democratic line while Tom Wells is running with no party affiliation.
CD 4: Ander Crenshaw’s retirement was a surprise but Republicans should be able to keep this seat with ease. On the GOP side, John Rutherford, Lake Ray and Hans Tanzler III are pretty well established in Duval County for the seat up in while Bill McClure hopes he can unite his St. Johns County base while his rivals divide up Jacksonville. There are also a few dark horses like businessman Stephen Kaufman and businessman Ed Malin. Deb Pueschel, who has run for the seat numerous times before with little impact, is back yet again. Whoever wins the primary will be the favorite in November against engineer and Navy veteran Dave Bruderly on the Democratic line and Gary Koniz who is running yet again with no party affiliation. Danny Murphy is running as a write in candidate. q
CD 5: Democrat Corrine Brown faces a far different district than she’s used to. Instead of winding through North Florida from Jacksonville to Orlando, the district now heads west through parts of Leon County. Democrats should be able to keep the seat but Brown now faces a major primary threat from Al Lawson who is making his third bid for Congress. Brown is far better known in the eastern part of this district while Lawson hopes to claim the western part. It’s no slam dunk for Brown by any means. Add in businesswoman LaShonda "LJ" Holloway and this is an interesting primary. Glo Smith, who Brown easily dispatched last time out, is back again on the Republican line but she will be an underdog against either Brown or Lawson.
CD 6: After Marco Rubio announced for a second term last week, Republican Ron DeSantis decided to seek a third term in the House and gave up his Senate bid. DeSantis cleared most of the decks chasing Pat Mooney, Brandan Patty and David Santiago out. But he does have two Republican primary opponents. Fred Costello, who placed second to DeSantis in the Republican primary in 2012, is back for another congressional bid but the state representative will have to work hard to win the rematch. Businessman G. G. Galloway will look to make a splash as an outsider. Dwayne Taylor, a proven winner in Volusia County from his time in the state House and the Daytona Beach City Commission, is running for the Democratic nod. Businessman Bill McCullough, dark horse Jay McGovern and attorney George Pappas are also running. The GOP starts as the favorite to keep this seat but the Democrats could flip it if they have a big enough wave in November but it would have to be a near-perfect storm.
CD 7: Democrats seem to think they can build some momentum here against longtime Republican Congressman John Mica. The problem is they didn’t find a top-tier candidate. The DCCC has sent a few attacks against Mica, including one from Victor Torres last month for not doing enough to solve Puerto Rico’s debt problems. Stephanie Murphy, a college instructor, jumped in at the last moment giving the Democrats a candidate. Mica does have a Republican challenger in businessman Mark Busch who served on the Orange County Soil and Water Commission. But Mica has been impressive in Republican primaries in recent election cycles, crushing Sandy Adams in a rare battle between two congressional incumbents back in 2012 and routing a field of opponents two years ago. Mike Plaskon is running as a write in candidate. Democrats will have a hard time knocking off Mica in November but this is a seat which is getting more competitive. If Mica retires in 2018 or 2020, Democrats will be far more engaged here.
CD 8: Republican Bill Posey should be in good shape here. While she didn’t exactly shine in her ill fated 2014 campaign, environmental activist Corry Westbrook is running on the Democratic line. Bill Stinson, a former NASA engineer, is running with no party affiliation here on the Space Coast. Unless there’s a major shake up, Posey should be headed back to Congress.
CD 9: Alan Grayson’s decision to run for the Senate opened up this Democratic leaning seat in Central Florida. There’s a top tier of Democratic candidates including physician Dena Grayson who just married the congressman, liberal activist Susannah Randolph and a state legislative veteran in Darren Soto. Dark horses Valleri Crabtree and Carmelo Garcia are also trying to break through in the Democratic primary. The Republican primary has engineer and Navy veteran Wayne Liebnitzky taking on Wanda Rentas who is looking to move up from the Kissimmee City Commission. Still, the Republicans would near a major wave to pick up this seat.
