Much has been written lately about whether U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson will jump into the governors race. While Ive thought for a long time that he would not do so, Ive recently changed my mind because of comments he's made about the race.
His staff has indicated the senator would consider jumping in if Charlie Crist stumbles in the Democratic primary. Well, hes going to stumble because there's just so much the GOP has on Charlie.
What the senator really means, in my humble opinion, is that he is prepared to jump into the race in order to save the Democratic Party.
So what do I mean by save"? I mean that the vast majority of Democratic-elected officials around the state dont want Charlie at the top of the ticket because they believe that ultimately he will drag them all down. And in all likelihood, he will.
Just recently, Gov. Rick Scotts own pollster, Tony Fabrizio, released polling showing that the governor is only 4 points behind Charlie. Some pundits wondered why a pollster would want to show his incumbent candidate behind, especially this early.
Well, the answer is real easy. Charlie is beloved by the press, to the point that every newspaper will endorse him, most right now. Not so much because they love Charlie though almost all do but because they all loathe the governor.
So, for an incumbent governor, who will not get any love from any newspaper in Florida, to only be behind at this juncture by 4 points is incredible news. And thats before the governor even spends $10 million to slam him!
No, the writing is already on the wall. The Democratic-elected officials are seeing blood everywhere and it has caused them to second-guess what the liberals are doing in promoting Charlie.
Bill Nelson will win the primary against Charlie, although as I have written before, Im not sure Charlie will even stay in the fight. Frankly, hed rather step back and try to work out a deal that has been much ballyhooed: when Nelson wins, Charlie gets the Senate seat.
But Sen. Nelson cant do that because of the very reason he got into the primary to begin with. Hes stepping in to save the party from Charlie. He, and party leadership, cant afford to have Charlie as the head of the Democratic Party, regardless of what President Obama wants.
In fact, the idea that the president wants him only puts an anchor around Charlies neck. The president is so unpopular here and Floridians across the board dislike Obamacare so much that despite the president helping significantly to raise dollars for Charlies campaign, and a few key presidential visits to certain parts of some Florida cities, he will otherwise be a huge liability.
Furthermore, the last thing that we, as Floridians. should want to do is send Charlie to Washington, D.C., because thats exactly where he wanted to go to begin with. You dont think Charlie will be content to just be governor, do you? And please dont try to convince me that he will want to spend two terms in Tallahassee; he was barely here when he was governor.
No, Bill Nelson will jump in because the partys only chance of having a competitive campaign against this governor is if the senator is the nominee. Otherwise, it will just be a host of television commercials with Charlie talking when he was a Republican, contrasted to what Charlie is saying now that hes a supposed Democrat.
The Republicans wont have to say anything; theyll just let Charlie do the talking against himself.
Truth be told, most people expect politicians to evolve over time on some issues. But you cant evolve on every issue, because then by definition that means youre a serial flip-flopper, and few folks want that kind of politician leading their state.
Bill Nelson is the Democrats' best -- no, their only -- hope of having a fighting chance to beat this incumbent. If he doesnt get into the race, all the money in the world isnt going to make Charlie a principled politician.
Like the governor or not, and I certainly like him, he does what he says he will do, to the steadfast angst of his detractors. Floridas economy is growing, jobs are coming here, state debt is down significantly, college tuition costs have become level, especially at Florida colleges, and the budget is in the black again.
Put me down for a Bill Nelson versus Rick Scott general election fight in November of 2014.
Barney Bishop, former CEO of Associated Industries of Florida, who recently created his third company, is an outspoken, lifelong Democrat with a strong fiscally conservative streak. He believes that government is not the answer to our problems, that civil discourse is obligatory, that compromising on details will not undercut ones core beliefs, and that a resilient, robust private sector is the elixir needed for a true democracy to grow and survive.
