Two-thirds to three-quarters of those expected to visit mega-casinos being proposed for Southeast Florida will likely have diverted their time -- and their money -- from other destinations in the region, state economists projected Friday afternoon.
That is, if the casinos are limited to just Miami-Dade and Broward counties.
The states Revenue Estimating Conference, which has yet to settle on the potential economic impact of the gaming bill, projected that the three mega-casinos could attract 823,150 to 1.65 million new visitors a year to the state.
At the same time, 4.4 million to 10.6 million people who now regularly visit the Sunshine State could be expected to redirect their travel plans -- and money -- to include the gambling venues.
The projections would appear to give some credence to arguments that have been made by the Florida Chamber of Commerce and Disney, which lead the organized opposition to the destination resort bills --HB 487 and SB 710 --filed by Rep. Erik Fresen, R-Miami, and Sen. Ellyn Bogdanoff, R-Fort Lauderdale.
The business groups claim the casinos would cut into the family-friendly image of the state and divert tourist dollars from existing businesses rather than attract more people to Florida.
The conference members hope to be able to set a revenue projection when they meet again next Friday.
Were getting close to getting numbers we can agree to, said Amy Baker, the states chief economist.
Numbers that are being considered range from the low-end fiscal impact of $51.7 million in fiscal year 2014, growing to $70.3 million in fiscal year 2016, to highs of $60.7 million in 2014, growing to $137.1 million in 2016.
The projections are based upon the casinos opening in 2015.
Through a compact with the state, the Florida Seminoles, and pari-mutuels, paying 35 percent on revenue, now produce an estimated $393 million a year -- $343 million guaranteed -- for the state.
The majority of that revenue would be eliminated if the Seminole compact is reduced or abruptly ended and the pari-mutuels see diminished play.
Meanwhile, beyond one-time application fees of $1 million and certain licensing fees, the three proposed casinos are projected to generate about $214.7 million a year for state coffers each year through a 10 percent tax on earnings, according to numbers released Friday.
Each scenario is based upon three casinos being built, with the operators having to build a $2 billion facility.
State economists have not been asked to consider variations on the revenues percentages that are now required from pari-mutuels. Pari-mutuels operators have requested the 35 percent rate be put more on par with the casinos, which would be charged 10 percent under the bill.
A key number for the revenue is first-time visitors to the state attracted by the casinos.
Those, in terms of economist multipliers and sales tax multipliers, have the biggest impact on the estimate, Baker said. Every dollar they spend in Florida wouldnt have been available except for the existence of the destination resorts.
So, from the estimating conference's standpoint, shifting tourist dollars from one attraction to another doesnt change projected revenue in terms of hotel stays and sales taxes.
Many unknowns remain about the potential economic impact of allowing three mega-casinos to open in Florida.
The economists lump all out-of-state tourists as simply being from out of state, rather than projecting if they come from other states or foreign nations. International tourists generally spend more than domestic visitors.
A big question is where the casinos may end up.
The economists dont believe the bill limits the casinos to strictly Miami-Dade and Broward counties.
One casino setting up outside those counties would fully break the Seminole compact. If the resorts are limited to the two South Florida counties, the compact would continue to provide the state with nearly $100 million a year in revenue.
The casinos would be expected to draw from those tourists already planning to visit the Miami region, with few randomly taking a day trip from Orlando, St. Petersburg or other parts of the state, if the casinos were strictly limited to just Miami-Dade and Broward counties.
Regardless of where the casinos set up, they would also tempt an estimated 153,165 to 370,150 Florida residents who now travel out of state annually.
The bill would also establish a statewide gaming commission.
Revenue Estimating Conference projections:
One-time impacts --
$6 billion: $2 billion for each new casino, three casinos projected;
$3 million to $5 million: $1 million, nonrefundable application;
$150 million: $50 million one-time licenses fee, three casinos projected.
Annual --
$6 million: $2 million annual license fee, three casinos projected;
$154.7 million: gross receipts tax, ranging from $99.9 million to $214.7 million;
$750,000: $250,000 each addictive gambling prevention fee;
$150,000: $50,000 each for alcohol license.
Tourist (annual) --
Gambling would attract 1 million new tourists to the state --
$305 million to $609 million a year from people arriving just to gamble;
6.6 million-14 million: visitors to the destination resorts.
Destination resort customers (based upon 6.6 million tourists, 14 million tourists) --
66.6 percent to 75.9 percent: current tourists;
12.5 percent to 11.8 percent: new tourists to Florida;
18.6 percent to 9.7 percent: local residents;
2.3 percent to 2.6 percent: Floridians who normally would go out of state.
Reach Jim Turner at jturner@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859 or (772) 215-9889.
