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Politics

Bush Campaign Weaves Tale of Large Lead Against Rubio, but Numbers Suggest Otherwise

February 12, 2016 - 7:30pm
Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio
Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio

If you were to ask Jeb Bush’s campaign team where they view Marco Rubio in terms of competitiveness, they’d likely say U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., is performing worse than Bush is. 

That certainly seemed to be the case in New Hampshire, where Rubio performed poorly in GOP debate as well as the primary to snag the Republican presidential nomination. 

“My kids were watching me last night,” Rubio said on his debate performance. “My kids knew that it didn’t go the way I wanted it to go.”

Rubio’s tense run in with Gov. Chris Christie cost him in the primary.

Rubio placed fifth. 

And Bush? He placed fourth -- but only by a .4 percent lead.

Even Rubio’s campaign team admits he had a less-than-extraordinary experience in New Hampshire, but insiders in the Bush campaign have been trying to weave a story saying Bush is miles ahead of Rubio.

Bush has pounced on Rubio in recent weeks, running ads against the U.S. Senator and politicians who have pledged their support to him in his run for the White House. 

A recent ad from Bush features a segment with Rick Santorum, who endorsed Rubio earlier this month. In the ad, Santorum says he can’t recall any of Rubio’s accomplishments during his time in the U.S. Senate. 

“I guess it’s hard to say they’re accomplishments,” Santorum says in the clip. “The bottom line is he didn’t get accomplishments done, neither did President Obama.”

Bush’s own Super PAC, Right to Rise, has already spent millions of dollars attacking Rubio, even mocking his heeled boots in a TV ad.

But contrary to the Bush campaign’s story, numbers -- both in polls and primary voters -- show the two Floridians are colliding at roughly the same strength. A new poll released Friday even shows that Rubio might actually be ahead of Bush, and not by less than half a point. 

An Augusta Chronicle, Morris News Service and Fox 5 Atlanta-sponsored poll released this week found nearly 15 percent of likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina would vote for Rubio in the primary while a smaller percentage -- almost 11 percent -- would cast their vote for Bush.

What’s more, Rubio leads the pack in voters’ second choice candidate, while Bush is a longshot, placing fourth in that category. That means the situation in South Carolina is even more precarious for Bush, because if people change their minds on the voting block, he’s not their first choice.

The two Florida politicians will meet once again in South Carolina Saturday evening for another debate, and they will face off again in the polls Feb. 20. 

 

Reach reporter Allison Nielsen by email at allison@sunshinestatenews.com or follow her on Twitter: @AllisonNielsen.

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