Gov. Rick Scotts bid for a second term will be the main event of Floridas 2014 elections, but a congressional race in North Florida is shaping up as one of the better matches on the undercard.
Having knocked off Congressman Allen Boyd in 2010 and held off former state Senate Democratic Leader Al Lawson in 2012, Congressman Steve Southerland has another major Democratic challenger looming in 2014 -- attorney and Leon County schools administrator Gwen Graham, whose popular father served two terms as governor and three terms in the U.S. Senate.
Graham announced on Tuesday that she would challenge Southerland in 2014, quickly generating media buzz across Florida. In her announcement, Graham tried to claim the middle ground, pointing to her fathers political career as proof that Democrats and Republicans can work together.
This is not Gwen Grahams first foray into federal politics. When Bob Graham sought the Democratic presidential nomination back in the 2004 election cycle, Gwen Graham was one of his chief advisers.
On paper, Democrats should have the advantage in Floridas Second Congressional District, which sprawls throughout 14 counties in the Big Bend and the Panhandle, taking in Tallahassee and the surrounding area. Democrats make up almost 54 percent of the voters in the district while less than 33 percent are Republicans.
But Southerland has managed to do well in two elections. Besides blowing out Boyd in 2010, Southerland beat Lawson 53-47 back in November despite President Barack Obama carrying 62 percent of Leon County, the largest county in the district which contains Tallahassee.
Southerland is a businessman, running a funeral home in Panama City. The former chairman of the Bay County Chamber of Commerce, Southerland has been a favorite of the business community while also winning the support of the tea party movement. Southerlands attempts to find a middle path between the Republican establishment and the tea party is starting to get national notice, including a recent piece by Jonathan Strong in the Weekly Standard.
While there have been rumors for weeks that she was going to run, Grahams announcement sets the stage for what should be one of the more competitive congressional races in the nation in the 2014 election cycle.
With many state workers livid over Gov. Rick Scotts policies in regard to public pensions, look for Graham to push a heavy turnout in and around Tallahassee to defeat Southerland, especially as the governor will be on the ballot in 2014 when he seeks a second term. But, as Southerlands victory over Lawson shows, a Democratic challenger will need more than Leon County to defeat the Republican incumbent.
How Graham does in the more rural and coastal counties will determine her fate and she could be tangled up between trying to appeal to conservative Democrats who have voted for Southerland before and public sector employees, many of whom are unionized. But Southerlands provided Democrats ammo over the years ranging from paying his taxes late to griping about his congressional salary.
One other factor to keep in mind is how this race will shape the future. Southerland is only 47 and, if he keeps his seat, could easily rise in the House. If Graham beats Southerland, she could follow in her fathers footsteps and become a candidate down the road for statewide office.
While most of the other 2014 congressional races in Florida are shaping up to be mismatches, a battle between Southerland and Graham easily qualifies as one of the more interesting races in the state this election cycle.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis piece exclusively for Sunshine State News.
