After two unsuccessful U.S. Senate bids and losing to Rick Scott in an ugly gubernatorial primary back in 2010, Bill McCollum looked finished as a candidate for statewide office. But McCollum has a real shot if he wants to make a third Senate campaign.
McCollum is a familiar, perhaps overly familiar, figure to Florida Republicans. First winning a legislative seat in 1976, McCollum was elected to Congress and served 20 years, emerging on the national stage during the Clinton impeachment but losing to Bill Nelson in 2000 for an open Senate seat.
Trying again for the Senate in 2004, McCollum lost the Republican primary to Mel Martinez. Bouncing back two years later, McCollum was elected attorney general and then turned his eyes to becoming governor. McCollum started off as the front-runner but got caught by Scott. The primary was so nasty that McCollum sulked in his tent and refused to endorse Scott in his close race with Democrat Alex Sink.
Since then, McCollum has remained politically active. In 2012, McCollum helped his old boss Newt Gingrich’s presidential efforts in Florida. McCollum made his peace with Scott and endorsed him for a second term over Charlie Crist.
McCollum’s name has surfaced as a possible candidate to replace Marco Rubio in 2010 though he has not been active in gearing up for a run. Nonetheless, McCollum has a real opportunity to win a Senate seat.
St. Pete Polls took a survey for Saint Petersblog this week and it showed none of the candidates were well-known with around 60 percent of Republicans unsure about the top contenders. David Jolly led the pack with 22 percent, Jeff Miller took 12 percent, Carlos Lopez-Cantera pulled 11 percent and Ron DeSantis garnered 9 percent. But 23 percent opted for other candidates and 22 percent are unsure.
Those numbers bode well for McCollum. While he paid the price for politics as usual in 2010, McCollum would face a far more crowded field if he enters the Senate race. McCollum would have a few advantages over his potential rivals: high name recognition and winning a statewide contest. Those are no small matters in a crowded primary.
McCollum could also benefit from the inherent conservatism of Republican primary voters.
“To be conservative, then, is to prefer the familiar to the unknown, to prefer the tried to the untried, fact to mystery, the actual to the possible, the limited to the unbounded, the near to the distant, the sufficient to the superabundant, the convenient to the perfect, present laughter to utopian bliss,” Michael Oakeshott wrote and he was spot on in his assessment.
Republicans often turn to the familiar face in a crowded primary. The GOP often turns to past candidates. That helps explain why the likes of George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, John McCain and Mitt Romney wound up with the GOP’s presidential nomination despite major problems with conservatives.
Even with the rise of the tea party and outsiders like Ben Carson and Donald Trump pushing against the GOP establishment, Republican primary voters often opt for the familiar choice. It’s why the last time the Republicans won a presidential election without a Bush was 1972. The last time the GOP won a presidential election without a Nixon or Bush was 1928 when Herbert Hoover was elected.
McCollum could benefit from cautious Republican primary voters, especially with mostly younger and unknown rivals standing in his way. Now 71, McCollum could be facing his last shot -- and it could be better than anyone would have anticipated after his loss to Scott.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
