Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, has a solid lead over former U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis, R-Fla., according to a new poll from Quinnipiac University.
Gillum takes 54 percent of likely voters while DeSantis gets 45 percent. Most Gillum and DeSantis backers--94 percent of them--say their minds are made up with less than six weeks to go until the election.
In a Quinnipiac poll released at the start of the month, Gillum led 50 percent to 47 percent.
The poll shows a major gender gap in the Sunshine State with women breaking for Gillum 59 percent to 39 percent while DeSantis edges the Democrat with men 51 percent to 48 percent. Gillum has the support of 96 percent of Democrats while DeSantis has the backing of 90 percent of Republicans. Voters outside the major parties break Gillum’s way with 56 percent backing the Democrat while 40 percent support DeSantis.
DeSantis leads with white voters 53 percent to 45 percent. Gillum gets 98 percent of black voters and 59 percent of Hispanics.
Gillum is seen in a favorable light by a majority of those surveyed--55 percent--while 31 percent view him as unfavorable. While 39 percent say Gillum is too liberal for Florida, 54 percent think he is neither too liberal nor too conservative.
DeSantis is seen as favorable by 42 percent while 47 percent view him unfavorably. While 39 percent say DeSantis is too conservative, 52 percent say he is neither too liberal nor too conservative.
"Former U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis appears to be outspending Mayor Andrew Gillum, his Democratic opponent, in television advertising by a sizable amount, usually a sign of a winning campaign," said Peter Brown, the assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "Yet, all these TV ads don't seem to be helping DeSantis's campaign."
"Those TV ads, run in an effort to introduce DeSantis to Florida voters, are airing at the same time his favorability numbers are sinking and Mayor Gillum's are rising," Brown added. "When asked whether they view each of the candidates favorably or unfavorably, Gillum's rating is 24 percentage points positive, and DeSantis's score is 5 points negative. At this point, Gillum's biggest asset is just that voters like him better.
"DeSantis is spending a lot for TV commercials, but they don't seem to be effective," Brown concluded.
Asked what the most important issue is in the gubernatorial race, 20 percent say the economy. Three issues--immigration, healthcare and education--are each seen as the top issue by 14 percent while 13 percent say the environment and 12 percent say gun policy.
A quarter of those surveyed--25 percent--say race relations will improve if Gillum is elected while 27 percent say they will get worse and 43 percent think they will stay the same.
A plurality--45 percent--say race relations will stay the same if DeSantis is elected while 13 percent think they will improve and 38 percent say they will worsen.
The poll of 888 likely voters in Florida was taken from Sept. 20 through Sept. 24 and had a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.
