Even as she took plenty of money from Nancy Pelosis PAC in her successful campaign against Steve Southerland, Gwen Graham was adamant that she would not back the California Democrat to lead her caucus. Graham delivered on that promise this week when she voted for Jim Cooper, a Blue Dog Democrat from Tennessee, over Pelosi to be House speaker.
Graham was one of the few bright spots for Democrats on Election Day. Aided by Southerlands uncanny ability to constantly shoot himself in the foot, Graham proved a good campaigner even as national conservative groups tried to tie her to Pelosi and her old bosses John Kerry and Howard Dean. Graham was helped by voters having fond memories of her father Bob who served two terms as governor and three in the U.S. Senate. Other big-name Democrats like Bill Clinton and Bill Nelson cheerfully hit the campaign trail for Graham.
Democrats have a thin bench in Florida and, with her win and her family ties, Graham is looming pretty large despite having just won her first elected office. Even before she took her seat in Congress on Tuesday, Graham was already getting buzz as a candidate for statewide office down the road.
While Graham is thought to be more interested in Washington than Tallahassee, running against Marco Rubio in 2016 might be a bit too soon. Still, if Bill Nelson, who will 76 when he is up again in 2018, doesnt run for a fourth term, Graham makes a lot of sense for Democrats to field if they want to keep the seat.
If she stays where she is, Graham will be hard to beat. Southerland won the seat in 2010 when Obamacare hurt Democrats across the nation, including Allen Boyd in North Florida. Boyd was also hurt by an ugly primary against Al Lawson. Two years later, it was Lawsons turn after he beat Leonard Bembry in the primary. Southerland was able to hold on despite high Democratic turnout that helped Barack Obama and Nelson carry Florida.
Democrats outnumber Republicans in the district. Republicans can do well in Panama City and the rural parts of the district but Democrats can rely on state employees, professors and students voting in Tallahassee. Just like 2010, 2014 was an excellent year for Republicans but Graham narrowly beat the GOP tide to win the seat.
Graham kept saying she was for the North Florida way instead of the Washington way on the campaign trail and enough voters believed her to send her to Congress. By keeping her promise and voting against Pelosi, Graham showed she was willing to break with her party when needed and wouldnt be a rubber stamp for Beltway Democrats. If she decides to stay in Congress, in the short run at least, Republicans will have a hard time beating Graham.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
