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FAU Poll: Trump and Biden, if Head-to-Head, in a Dead Heat in Florida

May 23, 2019 - 6:00am
Donald Trump, Joe Biden
Donald Trump, Joe Biden

President Donald Trump and former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden hold commanding leads in the race for their parties’ nominations for president in 2020, and are in a dead heat in a possible head-to-head matchup, according to a statewide survey of Florida voters by the Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative (FAU BEPI). 

In a crowded field of Democratic candidates, Biden polled at 39 percent, followed by U.S. Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, who are tied at 12 percent, South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 9 percent, U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris at 7 percent and former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke at 5 percent.

“Even though Joe Biden has a substantial lead among the Democrats, with almost 10 months to go before the Florida Democratic presidential primary, there is still plenty of time for the other candidates to make up ground,” said Monica Escaleras, Ph.D., director of the FAU BEPI.

The survey polled how each of the top five Democratic candidates would do in a matchup with Trump. Biden fared the best in a 50-50 tie with Trump. Sanders polled at 49 percent to Trump’s 51 percent. Trump won matchups with Warren and Buttigieg, both 52-48 percent, while Harris p six points behind the president, 53-47 percent. 

Trump’s approval rating among Florida voters rose to 47 percent (up from 44 percent in the FAU BEPI’s March poll), with 44 percent disapproval. With former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld the only announced GOP opponent to Trump, the survey also included three hypothetical Republican challengers: U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, former Ohio Gov. John Kasich and current Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan. Trump won 85 percent support in the poll, with Rubio polling at 5 percent, Kasich at 2 percent and Weld at 1 percent.

A plurality of voters, 48 percent, supports legislation recently approved by the Florida legislature requiring repayment of financial obligations before a felon’s voting rights are restored, while 34 percent oppose and 19 percent are undecided. In 2018, Florida voters approved a constitutional amendment automatically restoring the right to vote to nearly 1.5 million people who had committed a felony in the past.

“President Trump’s approval ratings in Florida have remained fairly steady across our polling, and he continues to have a strong base of support in this state,” said Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., professor of political science at FAU and a research fellow of the Initiative. “Former Vice President Joe Biden does well across the board in Florida, and his strength among moderate Democrats appears largely unchallenged so far.”

The survey was conducted May 16-19 and polled 1,007 Florida registered voters. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.0 percentage points. The data was weighted by ethnicity, age, education, party affiliation, region and gender based on a 2016 voter model. It is important to remember that subsets carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines and an online panel provided by Dynata. The polling results and full cross-tabulations are available at

The Florida Atlantic University Business and Economic Polling Initiative conducts surveys on business, economic, political and social issues with a focus on Hispanic attitudes and opinions at regional, state and national levels via planned monthly national surveys. The initiative subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research and is a resource for public and private organizations, academic research and media outlets. In addition, the initiative is designed to contribute to the educational mission of the University by providing students with valuable opportunities to enhance their educational experience by designing and carrying out public opinion research.


Most of us remember when Adolph Rodham Hitlary was reported to be 98% likely to win the election against President Trump. So when they say "Dead Heat" it means Biden will be defeated in a landslide.

Duh, got my GED, duh, MAGA, duh, walkaway, duh, Go Trump! duh, how do you spell idiot? MAGA

At least Trump finally found something he could spell when he stole Reagan's platform, MAGA...

there sure must a lot of uneducated idiots in FL to vote for the sorry, orange fat guy...

Trump is toast. If that idiot is not in jail by the time the election roles around, he'll be indicted as soon as he leaves office. He is destined to a future life as the disgrace that he is in every way. Liar, Cheater, Draft Dodger, Coward, Tax Cheat, failed reality TV host, failed businessman (6 bankruptcies). Did I mention liar again?

speaking of idiots, correct spelling is ROLL. I support The Donald.

There is a reason why they call it Floriduh... Good thing for us natives is most everyone else is from somewhere else outside of Florida. They are the only fools voting for Trump the Chump...

Trump will win by a land slide no one wants a guy who can't hold a thought makes more gaffs then a person with Alzheimer's, Trump is the only President in my Life Time that has actually done his job and not gone there to get rich. Biden is a Manchurian Candidate for China and we all know it if you would vote for that then you are voting against America

If Trump wins again, I'm leaving the country. And this time I really mean it!

Great,only you should go ahead and leave now and I mean it . :) BECAUSE PRESIDENT TRUMP WILL ABSOLUTELY BE THE REELECTED PRESIDENT!!! :) :) :)

Good! Buy!


Oh, you, Al Gore, and a bunch of "over the hill" Hollywood types ALWAYS say that....But you socialist Democrats NEVER keep your weak promises...

Please leave NOW - before you sanity returns.

Well, if Floridians go for a compulsive liar, a serial cheater and adulterer, a life-long con man, and a proven fraudster ... so be it. That's why outsiders call it "Weird Florida".

Stop talking about Bill Clinton, he's no longer in office. It's YOU and your party that are the liars, fake news idiots! Trump is doing our country a world of good! He is a great president. You're party is full of BS! They are corrupt collusionist, they are the criminals! Get a life and learn something. Pay attention!

Pretty nutty comment, Debbie. Demonstrably ... DEMONSTRABLY ... Trump is the inveterate liar that's "full of BS" ... Trump is the "collusionist" ... and when he's out of office after the 2020 election ... New York State will hang his "criminal" *** out to dry. (I think you may have a dyslexia problem. if so, you're excused.)

Your comment is Ludicrous ! :)

Try looking in your mirror "Weird", and you will see why outsiders can still pick you out of a crowd. Thank God TRUMP is changing their perception !

Gee, nothing like name-calling to make a comment that bears zero weight.

Yup, I didn't like Bill Clinton either.

I remember when Adolph Rodham Hitlary was reported to be 98% likely to win the election against President Trump. So when they say "Dead Heat" it means Biden will be defeated in a landslide.

"Plugs" Biden won't even make it to the campaign "finish line".

This is EXACTLY how the 'early' Trump vs Hillary 2016 "contest" played out... (until Hillary soon "lit herself on fire, and went down in flames", never to be credibly heard from again....) I guess the probabilities of indictment and prison can do that to a guilty person with a "list of criminal actions dating all the way back to Little Rock" will do that to the criminal mind...

Her pants were constantly in flames and her nose length

Just wait 12 months and by then if Chump hasn't quit as the walls close in or just goes bonkers as all his lies, criminal acts are exposed and to trail...………And the polls about Hilary were right, she won the popular vote by 3mm...…………...Just 10k were in the wrong place giving Chump a win anyway...……...…...….And 2018 you all forget about and so many new voters mostly dems says otherwise in Florida, the country.

a very lucid description of blathering non-facts and miscellaneous hopes and nightmares.

Trump the Chump is a living, breathing, profanity and obscenity as a man and as president. If Floridians vote for him again ... it sure as h*ll won't say anything good about Floridians. It's even more bizarre that evangelicals and the so-called 'Moral Majority' would vote for a liar, adulterer, cheater, and sinner who also fails to keep the sabbath.


See you make up names and stories breath and eat fake news and use lying Talking Points but the truth is More People have Jobs and 5 million are now off food stamps because they are making good money . Blacks Spanish and non Graduates are now working many for the first time in there lives and making good pay checks taxes are lowest ever and Trump just lowered Prescriptions and Said He will never give up Pre Existing Conditions for anyone So there you go There is no person you know running that can or will be able to get the things done we all want and need. Your a hack and don't care about what we need just that you support your socialist leaders .


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