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Florida's New Voting Bloc: Can They Rescue Rubio or Save Sanders?

March 11, 2016 - 11:15am

The Florida primary has been polled and re-polled, but is there a whole new voting bloc that the current estimates are leaving out - a bloc that could lead to another upset as big as Sanders winning Michigan despite huge polling numbers in Clinton's favor?


Since the one-two punch of the Florida real-estate crash followed by the Great Recession, the way many people live in Florida has changed in drastic ways and this primary will test the influence of a whole new class of Florida voter - the rise of renters.
 
As a real-estate owner and developer of large rental apartment communities in Florida that has helped build many new communities in the last ten years, I have had a front row seat to just how much the Florida landscape has changed, and I think the pollsters may be underestimating how much this may affect the primaries.
 
Renters have different priorities than home-owners and many in our communities come from different backgrounds than what you think of when you say, "Florida voter." Renters are both upwardly and downwardly mobile; overwhelmingly Millennial; many are of Brazilian, Bajan, Jamaican and Haitian decent, rather than Hispanic; and most move around too much for the polling to catch.
 
And in Florida, moving frequently can make a big difference since this is a state where traditionally families buy a home and settle down for longer than the national average. Zoning influences where your kids go to school and property taxes encourage you to stay put in a way that for decades has kept districts fairly predictably Democratic or Republican.
 
The rise of the voting bloc may have changed that. Young Millennials tend to move frequently while chasing jobs in a challenging employment market or suddenly need more space when they get married or have children. This could be very interesting, since despite commanding leads by both Trump and Clinton in Florida polling, Millennials are the least supportive demographic of either party's current front-runner. Could this save Sanders for a real fight with Clinton or rescue Rubio's flagging campaign that has him down 23 points behind Trump even in his home state?
 
Millennials have the potential to affect the Democratic primary just as much as the Republican one. Miami Dade College recently held a "Millennial Summit." They conducted an experiment where they listed candidates' positions on various issues while hiding their names. Students were told to drop a marble into the bin next to the positions they most supported. Bernie Sanders won, overwhelmingly.
 
On the other hand, the new renters' varied demographics could work in the opposite direction, too. Donald Trump's talk of building a wall along the Mexican border and other controversial statements have hung upon him an 80 percent unfavorable rating with Latino voters according to polls revealed at this year's recent Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC).
 
Yet, while Florida has a huge number of Hispanic home owners, a great many of our renters are from Haitian, Jamaican, Bajan or Brazilian backgrounds. We have so many Brazilian residents in our South Florida Properties that we have constructed Brazilian-style soccer courts like those popular in Rio de Janeiro. When we talk with our Brazilian neighbors, they do not seem to have the same animosity towards Trump and might make his victory in Florida even more of a landslide.
 
There is, quite literally, 'a whole new voter in town' all across Florida. They are renters, and they have made the state a more interesting place to live. They may also make it far more difficult to predict politically which GOP candidate will take home the Florida's winner-take-all 99 delegates, or how many of the state's 246 Democratic delegates will wind up with Clinton versus Sanders. The Sunshine State's new voting bloc of renters have the potential to shine a whole new light on each campaign's strengths and weaknesses.

    
Eric Granowsky is a real estate entrepreneur who splits his time between Florida, New York and Los Angeles. His company, ESG Kullen, has become one of the leading owner/developers of multifamily assets in Florida. Between 2010 and 2015 alone, Granowsky's company has added seven new rental communities in Miami, Boca Raton, Orlando and Tampa - housing many thousands of new renters.

Comments

Are any of you people Christians? My God. The God was asked to try make an immigration deal surrounded by democrats and nothing that would get through the house. He did what he could. Let's crucify Rubio for ONE issue. How about him saving the country 2 trillion dollars by leading the bill against the obamacare bailout? How about his bills against human trafficking saving young girl's lives?....How may things can TRUMP be accused of as being wrong..125?? but no one cares as long as you're ANGRY. How stupid! You will LOSE to hilary you morons. You can't win an election in the U.S with 35 % of angry white guys you dopes... How many years and obamas do you ned to see... If you don't vote for rubio you get what you deserve Hillary Roddam Clinton!. Good LUCK!

You minimize Rubio's immigration betrayal with "ONE issue." The truth is that Marco Rubio made a MAJOR policy commitment of NO AMNESTY and he went all over FL promising NO AMNESTY. It was BETRAYAL when he joined the 'Eight Gangsters.' This is not just another flip flop. That BETRAYAL, sir, is a major character flaw. For more of the truth of why Marco Rubio won't even carry his home state See www.MarcoRubioAmnestyMan.com.

I agree. What are people thinking? I and other conservative Republicans will not, and I repeat, will not vote for Trump. You will get Hillary. Is that what you want? Think of the future not on the moment. It is not a TV show that will go away in a season. Trump is a Casino owner, with strip clubs, bad stuff goes on in those places, and remember what happens when they roll the dice, most times they lose. They lose bad. Do you want him making deals for you and your family ? Don't gamble on our future. "God is not mocked!" You will reap what you vote. God help us all tomorrow.

Hey Listen. I think we all know that Kasich would be the best PRESIDENT. And if you have a brain you saw Rubio and Cruz make trump look like a 2 year old on policy in the last debate. But the problem is here is that the GOP underestimated Trump for so long that they built up a coalition of white ANGRY people who don't care if trumps kills his own mother. they will still vote for him.Is that what we deserve as a country? Look... Rubio should not be killed for the gang of eight. Other candidates in this race have been far more left on immigration but have lied about it. Cruz is on video pleading for immigration reform and Trump has paid off everyone and hired illegals himself. Can we please vote on who is the smartest man with the best policies??? A Sorry , that makes too much sense!

Rubio lied to us, now he's lying to the Nation.. Go Trump... No More Lies..

Facts is facts! GO TRUMP!

So, this 'writer' can't afford to stay in Florida full time but thinks he's got the answers on how it's gonna be? Typical comments from a realtor, who likes to be called a developer while constructing slum housing in Orlando,Tampa, and Miami! Don't need him OR his thoughts on how the 'renters' will take charge of the vote! They're all working two jobs to pay the rent this con man charges!

Actually, I know Eric Granowsky and has made it his mission to create affordable housing for lower middle class families with the kind of amenities usually reserved for hyper expensive luxury rentals. He also has created really wonderful communities, the kind I never had growing up in Florida. I understand your anger towards slum lords, but Eric is the exact opposite. He is a genuinely good guy who has made it possible for people to live in the comfort that we all deserve. Check it out for yourself. Google his company, ESGkullen.

Yes, "millenniums" are wonderful, as well as wondrous; but they do have a few faults: they are narcissistic (but then, so is our current President), and then they tend to buy or adopt puppies or kittens (against better advice and good judgement) and then abandon them (doesn't bode well for any later arriving children), and as far as Eric Granowsky, and his "real estate ilk" are concerned, "millenniums" are merely prey to "milk" for profit (and now he considers himself an "election result' seer...at the very least, laughable prognostication ! Better stick to your 6% "bird in hand.." profit margin Eric...)

This article makes absolutely no sense!!! There is very little of opinions between home owners and renters. Abortion. Jobs. The economy. Healthcare. Invading other countries and climate change are the subjects all Floridians think about before voting for a candidate. Makes no difference if one is a renter or home owner. The most STUPID political article I have read since Sarah Palin's last one! The Donald will sweep all the 99 GOP delegates. And the Negroes and Hispanics will carry Hillary AGAIN over the goal line! To all you GOP losers, get used to POTUS HILLARY!!!!!

That's right, little person - keep believing what your saying. Hillary would be GREAT - at CONTINUING the destruction of America, and pushing us toward larger Government, with greater Control and less personal FREEDOM.

What freedoms have you personally lost? Can you wake up every morning and say" MERRY CHRISTMAS!" ? YES!!! Can you still buy a gun? YES!!!! It was your Federal government that gave $35,000,000,000.00 to GOP NJ Governor Krispy Creame after Hurricane Sandy. How much has that fat slob paid back? "the destruction of America" Like these facts: GOP TEA BAG GERS, YOU ARE ALL SO MUCH RICHER DUE TO YOUR BLACK, KENYAN-BORN AND MUSLIM POTUS OBAMA!!!!!! March 4, 2016 read the ACTUAL FACTS: BLACK POTUS Obama’s Market INCREASES: Obama’s DOW UP 113.95% WINNER!!! Obama’s S&P UP 148.45% SUCCESS!!!!! Obama’s NASDAQ UP 227.34% TIGER BLOOD!!! *************************** GOP w’s Market DECREASES: w’s DOW DOWN (24.85%) LOSER!!!!! w’s S &P DOWN (40.06%) REAL LOSER!!!!! w’s NASDAQ DOWN (47.95%) TOTAL LOSER!!!!!! DEM Clinton’s Massive Market INCREACES: Clinton’s DOW UP 226.38% INCREDIBLE!!!! Clinton’s S & P UP 210.16% MASSIVE!!!!!!!!! Clinton’s NASDAQ UP 297.56% PH’CKING A !!!!!! Dem POTUS Clinton left office with an unemployment rate of JUST 4.2%. Your GOP w LOSER left office with an unemployment rate of 7.8%. A HUGE increase of 85.7% !!!! Under your Black POTUS Obama the unemployment rate is DOWN to 4.9%. A DROP of (37.2%) FACTS DO NOT LIE. ONLY GOP DO! POTUS HILLARY!!!!!

Rubio is a US Senator from Florida? Get out of here. I thought they changed the Constitution and took one Senator away from us. He has never been in Washington DC and Florida for the past 2 years!

Don't get the story, but I live at a ESGkullen apartments in Orlando and it's nice , best gym and pool I've seen. TRUMP is the only one that can save us! Can't trust Hilary, Rubio is not for real.

Eric's article makes good sense.

You spelled the word incorrectly, it's 'cents'.

Are you serious? You REALLY think a voter political thoughts change when one switches from a renter to a home owner? hahahahahahahhahahahahha No wonder your McCain and Romney lost! Get used to POTUS HILLARY!!!!

They are missing a lot of people that don't have landlines. And not sure how much young Trump is getting as he has been underperforming his polling. Fact is a lot of Trump supporters won't actually bother to vote they have shown.------------------------- Also I think Rubio just might do well.--------------------------------- Doesn't matter to me as Hillary will beat either as no one likes repubs anymore for many and very good reasons, not even repubs!!! I expect a party breakup as it needs to or it will die. But it's tired tax, regulation, war, energy, economic policies need to go as 2000-2008 proved them fiscally and morally bankrupt. They don't work and why we are $19T in debt.

Rubio lied to all of us who voted him in.. Why should we even consider giving him another chance at anything.. Trump 2016

So true! Send Rubio and his wife back to Cuba!

Jackpot of a commit!

Even with Sanders praising Fidel Castro?

Sanders can be Marco's 'second' in Cuba!

And The Donald LOVES Putin! Hillary all the way!

Gee, lady - you sure are stupid - or maybe don't have a grasp of the English language. Mr Trump stated that Putin was a capable leader, not that he liked him. Since you don't keep up on what's happening in the world... Putin is crafty enough to be making Russia STRONGER, so that he can one day be YOUR leader if Trump does not stop him. Killary will be "Doing Time" for High Treason.

Talk about keeping up with the times, unfortunately, Hillary will never see the inside of a courtroom, nor will she EVER be charged with crimes because to get to her, the Feds would have to indict half of Congress!

"Killary will be "Doing Time" for High Treason." Hillary Clinton has NEVER been convicted on anything! NEVER!!! I know you hate facts. But facts do not lie!

REALLY??? Russia has a strong military? NOT!!!!!! World | Sun Mar 6, 2016 12:25pm EST Related: WORLD Russia will cut defense budget by 5 percent in 2016, RIA reports MOSCOW Russia’s defense budget will be cut by 5 percent in 2016, Russian Deputy Defence Minister Tatiana Shevtsova said, according to the RIA news agency. Defense spending has been growing as part of a drive by President Vladimir Putin to restore Russia’s military might. The decision to cut shows, however, that even the armed forces are not immune to a slowing Russian economy, which has been hit by falling oil prices and Western sanctions. The 5 percent cut, if approved by Putin, would be the biggest reduction in defense spending since he took office in 2000. In 2011, while prime minister, he announced plans to revitalize the Russian army and its aging equipment by spending 23 trillion rubles by 2020. Military interventions in Ukraine and Syria have made strengthening the military an even greater priority for the Kremlin. The cut represents a victory for the finance ministry, which has said Russia can no longer afford the multi-billion-dollar revamp of the armed forces and called for a 10 percent spending reduction across ministries. The Russian economy shrank by 3.7 percent last year and is expected to decline by another 1 percent this year.

Donald Trump lavishes praise on 'leader' Putin By Jeremy Diamond, CNN Updated 10:19 AM ET, Fri December 18, 2015 | Video Source: CNN Trump returns the compliment from the Russian leader Calls for decreased US involvement in the Ukrainian conflict Washington (CNN)Donald Trump on Friday praised Vladimir Putin and appeared to defend the autocratic Russian president when pressed about his alleged killing of journalists and political opponents critical of his rule. One day after Putin called Trump a "bright and talented" and the "absolute leader of the presidential race," the Republican presidential front-runner returned the compliments, hailing Putin as a "leader" and pointing to his high favorability numbers in Russia. "He's running his country and at least he's a leader, unlike what we have in this country," Trump said when asked by "Morning Joe" Republican host Joe Scarborough about Putin's alleged killing of journalists and political opponents. "I think our country does plenty of killing also, Joe, so you know. There's a lot of stupidity going on in the world right now, a lot of killing, a lot of stupidity," he said. Finally, when asked whether he would condemn Putin's alleged brutal tactics, Trump responded: "Sure, absolutely." Trump noted that Putin had called him smart, which Trump said is "always good, especially when the person heads up Russia." READ: Putin praises 'bright and talented' Trump While Republicans have hammered President Barack Obama for failing to do enough to halt Russian aggression in eastern Ukraine, Trump called for decreased U.S. involvement in the Ukrainian conflict. "I think maybe we should do a little following and let the neighbors take a little bit more of an active role in the Ukraine," Trump said, calling for European countries like Germany to take the lead, despite Germany's deep involvement in brokering a political settlement to the conflict in Ukraine. Trump also suggested that as president he would herald a new era of relations between the U.S. and Russia, which have plummeted to levels not seen since the Cold War, experts say. OPINION: Why Putin praised Trump Trump pointed to his experience as a dealmaker and said that while some see Russia as a problem for the United States -- most in the Republican Party have described Russia as the U.S.'s top global adversary -- Trump said one "could also see Russia being a really big asset to our country." "A lot of good things could happen with Russia if we get along with Russia and if they respect us," Trump said. ************************** Try READING THE FACTS!!!

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