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Report: Tampa-Orlando High-Speed Rail Could Cost Taxpayers $3 Billion More Than Expected

As new Gov. Rick Scott mulls over high-speed rail's cost versus public benefit, he's unlikely to miss a new Reason Foundation study and accompanying research on the proposed Tampa to Orlando project.

According to the report, if the high-speed rail line goes over budget or fails to meet ridership expectations, Florida taxpayers could get stuck with a bill of up to $3 billion.

Long-standing research shows costs are underestimated on nine of every 10 large passenger rail transportation projects, with cost overruns averaging 45 percent higher than anticipated, says the Foundation. "If the Tampa-Orlando rail line were to go over budget by 45 percent, Florida taxpayers would be on the hook for $1.2 billion more than the $280 million currently forecast," the nonprofit think tank claims.

The Reason Foundation warns that Florida may be miscalculating the costs of high-speed rail by even more than that. Consider, it says, that the expected cost of building the first segment of California's high-speed rail line is 111 percent higher than Florida's -- $67.8 million per mile compared to $32.1 million per mile in Florida. The costs of the Tampa-Orlando system would be $3 billion more than advertised, using California's estimated cost per mile.

The Reason study also flags concerns about ridership numbers: "The Florida project is predicted to carry 2.4 million riders annually, which is two-thirds the ridership on the existing Amtrak Acela Express service. The Acela trains serve several big metropolitan areas, including New York, Washington, D.C., Boston, Philadelphia, and Baltimore. The population of those cities is approximately eight times the population of the Tampa and Orlando metropolitan areas."

Said Wendell Cox, author of the report and head of Wendell Cox Consultancy, "The risk to Florida taxpayers is likely to be many times greater than current projections for this high-speed rail proposal. History tells us that cost overruns could run into the billions and ridership shortfalls will likely leave taxpayers with an open-ended bill for operating subsidies."

Robert Poole, director of transportation at Reason Foundation, is a transportation adviser to Gov. Scott's administration. He says this: "Unfortunately, the numbers just don't add up. When you look at realistic construction costs and operating expenses, you see these trains are likely to turn into a very expensive nightmare for taxpayers."

The study says Florida should consider cancelling the high-speed rail project, as Wisconsin and Ohio have recently done. Or, if the rail plan moves forward, the state should ensure that the builder and operator will be financially responsible for all cost overruns and revenue shortages.

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